EURUSD poised for another decline after correction

The EURUSD pair is recovering but remains under pressure from the strong US dollar, with the rate currently standing at 1.1349. For more details, see our analysis for 30 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is estimated at 47.1%
• Eurozone consumer confidence fell to a three-month low
• EURUSD forecast for 30 September 2026: 1.1265

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is undergoing a correction after rebounding from the 1.1345 support level. Overall, the pair has remained under pressure for the fourth consecutive week. Investors currently estimate the probability of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the October meeting at 47.1%, which continues to support the US dollar.

Pressure on the euro eased slightly after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said there was no need for an urgent increase in interest rates. His comments temporarily reduced market expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening but failed to change the broader EURUSD trend.

Fresh eurozone macroeconomic data puts additional pressure on the euro. The eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator unexpectedly fell to 97.9 points in September, while consumer confidence dropped to a three-month low. Earlier, ECB President Christine Lagarde raised the inflation forecast for the current period to 4% but also indicated that the regulator did not intend to take aggressive measures before the end of the year.

The EURUSD forecast for 30 September 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is strengthening but remains within a descending channel. The EURUSD forecast for today, 30 September 2026, suggests that the decline could resume, with the nearest target at 1.1265.

The Stochastic Oscillator supports the bearish scenario. Its readings have reversed from a descending trendline, indicating persistent selling pressure. A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish correction channel, followed by consolidation below 1.1335, would confirm the bearish scenario. In this case, sellers would receive a signal to extend the downward momentum and drive the EURUSD pair towards the specified target.

An alternative scenario suggests a breakout and consolidation above the 1.1385 resistance level. This would indicate easing selling pressure and a possible move beyond the current descending channel. In this case, the EURUSD rate could continue to recover towards the nearest target at 1.1475.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: M15 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance level: 1.1365
• Key support level: 1.1335

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A renewed decline and a breakout below the lower boundary of the correction channel, followed by consolidation below 1.1335, would indicate a resumption of bearish momentum and create conditions for opening short positions in the pair, with a target at 1.1265.

• Current price: 1.1349
• Entry level: 1.1335
• Take profit: 1.1265
• Stop loss: 1.1365
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 30 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario remains a breakout above the 1.1385 resistance level, followed by consolidation above it. The euro could receive additional support if expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike continue to decline, which could weaken the US dollar.

Summary

The EURUSD forecast for 30 September 2026 points to continued selling pressure despite the local recovery in the pair. Weak economic data from the eurozone and persistent expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike continue to weigh on the euro. A breakout below 1.1335 would increase the risk of a decline towards 1.1265.

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