EURUSD strengthens ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release

The EURUSD pair is undergoing an upward correction as it attempts to recover from the lower boundary of the channel. The rate currently stands at 1.1256. Discover more in our analysis for 2 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Rising energy and fuel prices are adding to pressure on the eurozone industrial sector
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October fell to 26.0% from 68.6% a week earlier
• EURUSD forecast for 2 October 2026: 1.1165

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting after four consecutive trading sessions of declines. On the daily chart, the price has reached the lower boundary of the descending channel, which could limit selling activity and create conditions for a local recovery in the pair. However, overall bearish pressure on the euro remains high.

The main factor behind the EURUSD decline remains the aggressive sell-off in the US bond market, where the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen to a 24-year high of around 5.34%. At the same time, the eurozone economy is showing signs of stagflation amid a renewed rise in energy and fuel prices, which is increasing pressure on industrial sector margins. The debt crisis in France remains an additional source of vulnerability for European assets.

The EURUSD pair received some local support from comments by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, who said that more time may be needed to assess whether further interest rate hikes are necessary. Against this backdrop, the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting fell to 26.0% from 68.6% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch. However, the decline in expectations of further monetary policy tightening has not yet led to sustained US dollar weakness.

Today, market participants will focus on the US labour market report, including Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth. Against this backdrop, the EURUSD forecast for 2 October 2026 remains bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is correcting, although the price remains below the EMA-65. The EURUSD forecast for today, 2 October 2026, suggests a renewed decline towards the 1.1165 target.

The Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional signal in favour of further downside. Its lines have reached a descending resistance line, indicating continued selling pressure. A breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending correction channel, with the price consolidating below 1.1245, would confirm the bearish scenario. In this case, sellers would receive a signal to extend the downward momentum and drive the EURUSD pair towards the stated target.

An alternative scenario suggests a breakout and consolidation above the 1.1305 resistance level. Such a signal would indicate easing selling pressure and increase the likelihood of the pair moving beyond the current descending channel. In this case, the EURUSD rate could continue to recover towards the nearest target at 1.1435.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance level: 1.1305
• Key support level: 1.1245

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

The EURUSD pair is expected to resume its decline if the price breaks below the lower boundary of the bullish correction channel and consolidates below 1.1245.

• Current price: 1.1256
• Entry level: 1.1245
• Take profit: 1.1165
• Stop loss: 1.1275
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 3 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario is the release of weak US labour market data. Such an outcome could strengthen expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy easing, trigger profit-taking in the dollar, and support a deeper upward correction in the pair.

Summary

The current upward correction in the EURUSD rate from the lower boundary of the descending channel is local. The pair's medium-term bearish trend remains intact, while the next move will largely depend on the market's reaction to today's Nonfarm Payrolls report.

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