EURUSD forecast today: quotes return to summer 2025 levels

French and German government bond yields have approached levels last seen during the European debt crisis. The rate currently stands at 1.1218. Find more details in our analysis for 6 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields recently approached levels seen during the European debt crisis
• US unemployment rose to 4.2% in September
• EURUSD forecast for 6 October 2026: 1.1070

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the fundamental backdrop remains negative for the euro. The published US labour market report is generally a negative factor for the dollar and should fundamentally support the EURUSD rate. However, in the current environment, this effect is partly offset by the eurozone’s problems, so the pair’s reaction was significantly weaker than might have been expected after such an NFP report.

US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by just 29 thousand in September, coming in below expectations of around 84–89 thousand. In addition, the August figure was revised down from 162 thousand to 133 thousand, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, whereas the market had expected the figure to remain around 4.1%. This data confirms a noticeable cooling in the US labour market.

Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year in September from 3.2% in August, exceeding analysts’ forecasts and marking the highest level since September 2023. Core inflation rose to 2.5%, while services inflation increased to 3.2%. The main driver of renewed price pressure was higher energy costs amid geopolitical tensions.

Fundamental analysis for 6 October 2026 takes into account that the weak US labour market supports EURUSD growth, while Europe’s debt problems and persistent inflation risks in the US continue to support the dollar. This is why the very weak NFP report has so far failed to trigger a sustained reversal in the pair.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed support at 1.1160 and resistance at 1.1265. The overall trend remains bearish. On the D1 chart, a resistance level has formed at 1.1285. The 1.1215 support level has been broken and now serves as a reference point for buyer strength. If the price consolidates above this level, it would signal a potential trend reversal. Otherwise, the downside target would be 1.1070.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests an alternative scenario. The price may consolidate above 1.1265 and then rise to 1.1360.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1265 and 1.1285
• Key support levels: 1.1160 and 1.1215

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1160 support level would signal another downward wave and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 1.1218
• Entry level: 1.1155
• Take profit: 1.1070
• Stop loss: 1.1185
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2.8

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk factors for the EURUSD rate remain more hawkish Fed rhetoric, accelerating US inflation, and unexpectedly strong US macroeconomic data, which could support the dollar. Additional pressure on the euro could come from political and debt instability in Europe, deteriorating eurozone economic indicators, and stronger expectations of ECB policy easing.

Summary

The published NFP report is a moderately positive factor for EURUSD, as the marked slowdown in job creation and rise in unemployment have significantly reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. However, this is not yet enough to trigger a full-scale reversal in the pair. European debt and political risks remain a major source of pressure on the euro, while expectations of a Fed rate hike in December continue to support the dollar.

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