EURUSD in precarious position: US yields are rising, while France is stepping up pressure on the euro

The USD continues to strengthen, putting pressure on the euro, with the EURUSD rate currently standing at 1.1190. Discover more in our analysis for 8 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Most Federal Reserve members favour further monetary policy tightening
• Yields on 10-year US Treasuries continue to rise
• EURUSD forecast for 8 October 2026: 1.1240 and 1.1140

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the main sources of pressure at present are the strong dollar, high US bond yields and France’s political and budgetary problems. The pair is undergoing a correction and testing the 1.1190 level.

The published minutes of the September meeting showed that most Fed members favour further monetary policy tightening due to persistent inflation risks. Meanwhile, the market estimates the probability of a rate hike as early as October at approximately 18–20%.

Yields on 10-year US government bonds continue to rise and currently stand at around 5.30%, strengthening the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index remains near its highest levels in roughly eighteen months.

High debt-servicing costs and political disagreements over France’s budget are increasing the risk premium on European assets. The Governor of the Bank of France said that the country does not currently need ECB assistance, emphasising the need to resolve its budgetary problems independently.

Eurozone inflation remains above the 2.0% target, while high energy prices pose additional risks. At the same time, rising bond yields are already slowing economic activity, so further rate hikes could intensify pressure on the EU economy.

The forecast for 8 October 2026 takes into account that the main risks for the EURUSD pair include the strong dollar, high US yields, French budget instability, and weak German exports. Persistent eurozone inflation could potentially support the euro by limiting the ECB’s scope to ease policy, but this has so far been insufficient to reverse the overall fundamental advantage of the dollar.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could continue its corrective wave as this signal plays out, with the 1.1240 resistance level serving as the pullback target. A rebound downwards from this mark would open the way for the downtrend to continue.

However, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario. The price could continue to fall and test the 1.1140 support level without first testing resistance.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1240 and 1.1315
• Key support levels: 1.1140 and 1.1080

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1140 support level would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 1.1190
• Entry level: 1.1140
• Take profit: 1.1080
• Stop loss: 1.1170
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 9 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario is a further reduction in expectations for US interest rate hikes, which could temporarily weaken the USD and support the euro. Another risk is a stabilisation of the political situation in France.

Summary

The euro has become dependent on the political situation in France and continues to lose ground against the USD. At the same time, EURUSD technical analysis suggests a corrective rise towards 1.1240 before a decline.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.