EURUSD stabilises as US bond yields hit new highs and problems in France and Germany intensify

The euro has stabilised, with a sideways trend forming ahead of a further decline. The EURUSD rate is currently trading at 1.1230. Find out more in our analysis for 9 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Most Federal Reserve members favour further monetary policy tightening
• Yields on 30-year US Treasuries have reached 5.618%, their highest level since 2000
• EURUSD forecast for 9 October 2026: 1.1170

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that expectations of a crisis in the eurozone and rising US government bond yields are currently the main sources of pressure.

On 8 October, the US Treasury held an auction of 30-year Treasury bonds worth 22 billion USD. The auction yield reached 5.618%, its highest level since August 2000. For comparison, the yield at the previous auction was 5.308%. Thus, the cost of long-term borrowing for the US government has increased significantly.

Medium-term fundamentals continue to favour the dollar. Persistently high US bond yields reflect sustained inflation expectations, the federal budget’s substantial borrowing requirements and the likelihood of a prolonged period of tight Fed monetary policy. Expectations of further interest rate hikes amid persistent inflation risks provide additional support for the US currency.

The situation in the eurozone remains less favourable. Deteriorating economic growth prospects, worsening budget problems in individual European countries and rising energy costs are limiting the euro's potential to strengthen. High oil prices increase production costs for European companies, intensify inflationary pressure, and create additional risks to economic activity.

The forecast for 9 October 2026 takes into account that record yields on 30-year US bonds indicate that long-term borrowing costs in the US remain high. Despite the possibility of short-term dollar weakness following a successful auction, fundamental factors continue to support the US currency. In the medium term, this creates conditions for a further decline in the EURUSD rate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair maintains a downward trajectory. The nearest support level has formed at 1.1160, while key resistance lies around 1.1265. On the daily D1 timeframe, the technical picture also indicates prevailing bearish sentiment. The resistance level is located at 1.1285, while the previously broken support at 1.1215 serves as a key reference point for assessing buying activity. Sustained consolidation above this level could be the first sign of a weakening downtrend and emerging conditions for a reversal. Otherwise, there remains a high probability that the EURUSD pair will continue to fall towards 1.1070.

However, an alternative EURUSD forecast for today suggests an upward correction. A decisive breakout and consolidation above the 1.1265 resistance level would increase the likelihood of stronger buying activity and a further recovery towards 1.1360.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1265 and 1.1285
• Key support levels: 1.1160 and 1.1215

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1160 support level would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 1.1230
• Entry level: 1.1155
• Stop loss: 1.1185
• Take profit: 1.1070
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.8

The trade idea is valid until 11:00 PM on 9 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks to the bearish EURUSD scenario are falling US Treasury yields, weakening expectations of further Fed monetary tightening, and improving economic prospects in the eurozone. These factors could strengthen the euro and trigger an upward correction. At the same time, rising US bond yields and persistent inflationary pressure could strengthen the dollar, pushing the pair lower.

Summary

The fundamental outlook for the EURUSD pair remains predominantly bearish. The highest yields on 30-year US Treasuries in 26 years are increasing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets and creating conditions for the US currency to strengthen. Meanwhile, EURUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards 1.1170.

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