EURUSD remains bearish and risks hitting new lows

The EURUSD pair remains under selling pressure amid concerns about the eurozone economy and anticipation of US inflation data. The rate currently stands at 1.1205. Find out more in our analysis for 12 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 46.3 in October, down from 48.1 a month earlier
• Market participants will focus on the release of US inflation data in the coming days
• EURUSD forecast for 12 October 2026: 1.1065

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is undergoing a correction, with buyers holding the 1.1175 support level. Concerns about France's fiscal situation and the outlook for economic growth in the eurozone are placing additional pressure on the euro. Market participants are assessing the European Central Bank's future policy, taking into account the need to contain inflation and the risks of slowing economic activity.

In the coming days, market participants will focus primarily on US inflation data. An acceleration in consumer price growth could fuel expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain tight monetary policy and put additional pressure on the EURUSD rate. Meanwhile, preliminary University of Michigan data released on Friday indicated a deterioration in US consumer sentiment. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 46.3 in October from 48.1 a month earlier, reaching its lowest level since May. Analysts had expected a more modest decline to 47.6 points.

From a technical perspective, the 1.1175 mark remains a key support level for the EURUSD pair. A breakout below it would intensify selling pressure and increase the likelihood of further declines. For an upward correction to develop, buyers need to gain a foothold above the 1.1255 resistance level. As long as prices remain below this mark, the baseline scenario suggests continued bearish pressure. The EURUSD forecast for 12 October 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is correcting within a Triangle pattern, while prices remain below the EMA-65, indicating continued selling pressure. The EURUSD forecast for today, 12 October 2026, suggests a renewed decline, with the target at 1.1065.

The Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional signal in favour of the bearish scenario. Its lines have reached overbought territory, creating conditions for renewed downward momentum. A breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern, followed by consolidation below 1.1165, would confirm the bearish scenario. In this case, sellers would receive a signal for a further decline towards the target at 1.1065.

An alternative scenario involves a breakout and consolidation above the 1.1255 resistance level. Such a signal would indicate easing selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a further EURUSD recovery. In this case, the pair could break out of its current downward structure and continue its upward trajectory towards the nearest target at 1.1325.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1255 and 1.1295
• Key support levels: 1.1175 and 1.1145

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern, followed by consolidation below 1.1165, would indicate increased selling pressure and movement towards the pattern’s target at 1.1065.

• Current price: 1.1205
• Entry level: 1.1165
• Stop loss: 1.1190
• Take profit: 1.1065
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 13 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

Risks to the bearish scenario stem from deteriorating US consumer sentiment, which could weaken the US dollar and support the EURUSD pair. Holding support at 1.1175, followed by consolidation above the 1.1255 resistance level, would cast doubt on the bearish scenario and create conditions for a rise towards 1.1325.

Summary

The EURUSD forecast for 12 October 2026 remains bearish. A breakout below the 1.1165 support level would intensify selling pressure and open the way for a decline towards 1.1065.

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