EURUSD recovers ahead of CPI data

The EURUSD pair is attempting to extend its corrective rise; however, US inflation data could be decisive for the pair's next move. The rate currently stands at 1.1209. Find out more in our analysis for 14 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The CPI release could influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy and trigger increased EURUSD volatility
• Consolidation above the nearest resistance levels would increase the likelihood of a continued EURUSD recovery
• EURUSD forecast for 14 October 2026: 1.1285

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is correcting for the second consecutive trading session after rebounding from the 1.1165 support level. The lower boundary of a descending channel on the daily chart runs near this level, increasing its significance and creating conditions for a continued recovery. Nevertheless, the pair's next move will depend largely on the release of US inflation data, which could alter expectations regarding the Fed's future policy and affect the dollar.

Today, market participants are focusing primarily on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Annual inflation is projected at 3.5%, up from 3.4% previously, while the monthly rate could accelerate to 0.6% from 0.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected at 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.4% previously, while the monthly reading is projected at 0.2% following a previous increase of 0.3%. A divergence between the actual figures and forecasts could trigger sharp fluctuations in the EURUSD rate and prompt the market to reassess expectations regarding the Fed's future decisions.

The EURUSD forecast for 14 October 2026 suggests a continued corrective rise, provided the 1.1165 support level holds. If the price remains above this mark, buyers could target the nearest resistance levels.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is strengthening after breaking above the upper boundary of a Wedge reversal pattern. Buyers have established a foothold above the EMA-65, indicating increased bullish momentum. The EURUSD forecast for today, 14 October 2026, suggests a continued rise towards the 1.1285 target.

The Stochastic Oscillator further supports the bullish scenario, as its readings have broken through a resistance line. A breakout and consolidation above a local resistance level at 1.1235 would confirm further gains. In this case, buyers would receive an additional signal supporting an upward move towards the 1.1285 target.

An alternative scenario involves a decline in EURUSD, with the price breaking below the 1.1165 support level and consolidating below this mark. Such a signal would cast doubt on the prospects for further growth and indicate increasing selling pressure, making a continued downward move more likely.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish correction
• Key resistance levels: 1.1235 and 1.1285
• Key support levels: 1.1185 and 1.1145

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Limit)

A rebound from the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern near 1.1200 would indicate growing buying pressure and create conditions for opening long positions with a target at 1.1285.

• Current price: 1.1209
• Entry level: 1.1200
• Stop loss: 1.1180
• Take profit: 1.1285
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 15 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The release of US CPI data remains the primary risk to the bullish EURUSD scenario. Inflation accelerating beyond forecasts could strengthen the US dollar and trigger a decline in the currency pair. A return below the EMA-65 and a breakout below the 1.1165 support level would provide further negative signals.

Summary

The EURUSD pair retains the potential for a corrective rise, and a breakout above the 1.1235 resistance level would confirm the possibility of a move towards the 1.1285 target. However, the release of US CPI data could increase volatility.

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