EURUSD hits its lowest level since May 2025

The EURUSD rate continued to fall following the release of US inflation data, currently standing at 1.1216. Discover more in our analysis for 15 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US consumer inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year
• US Treasury yields resumed their rise
• EURUSD forecast for 15 October 2026: 1.1015

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction for the second consecutive trading session after rebounding from the 1.1165 support level. The lower boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart runs close to this level, reinforcing its significance and creating conditions for a continued recovery. Nevertheless, the pair's subsequent performance will depend largely on upcoming releases of US inflation data, which could alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy and affect the dollar.

The published figures point to increasing inflationary pressure in the US economy and raise the likelihood of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Rising energy prices are another factor: petrol prices rose by 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase in the headline CPI. Meanwhile, accelerating core inflation indicates that price pressures persist beyond the energy sector.

The EURUSD forecast for 15 October 2026 suggests a continued decline provided the 1.1210 resistance level holds.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a descending channel. The nearest support level is located at 1.1110, while a key resistance level lies around 1.1210. On the daily D1 timeframe, the technical picture also points to prevailing bearish sentiment. The resistance level is located at 1.1205, while support has formed at 1.1150. A sustained move above this mark could be the first sign of a weakening downtrend and emerging conditions for a reversal. Otherwise, there remains a high likelihood that the EURUSD pair will continue to decline towards 1.1015.

Meanwhile, an alternative EURUSD forecast for today suggests an upward correction. A decisive breakout and consolidation above the 1.1210 resistance level would increase the likelihood of stronger buying activity and a further recovery towards 1.1285.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1210 and 1.1205
• Key support levels: 1.1150 and 1.1110

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A rebound from the 1.1210 resistance level would signal increased selling pressure and set the stage for opening short positions, targeting 1.1015.

• Current price: 1.1216
• Entry level: 1.1145
• Stop loss: 1.1186
• Take profit: 1.1015
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.17

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks to the bearish EURUSD scenario are a potential decline in US Treasury yields, softer rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials, and rising expectations of ECB interest rate hikes. Another source of uncertainty is the high volatility in the foreign exchange market following the release of inflation data, which could trigger short-term corrective movements even if the overall downtrend persists.

Summary

Fundamental and technical factors suggest that the EURUSD outlook remains predominantly bearish. Accelerating US inflation fuels expectations for further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and provides support for the US dollar. The preferred scenario is a continued decline in the pair, with the nearest target at 1.1015.

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