Fed and ECB decisions could turn the EURUSD market upside down

The euro continues to lose ground amid pressure stemming from France and upcoming Federal Reserve and ECB meetings. The EURUSD rate currently stands at 1.1167. For further details, see our analysis for 27 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October
• French debt risks are weighing on the euro
• The ECB is preparing for its 28–29 October meeting
• EURUSD forecast for 27 October 2026: 1.1200 and 1.1120

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the fundamental backdrop remains negative for the euro: investors are concerned about the state of France's public finances, while recent data indicates slowing business activity in the eurozone. Meanwhile, markets are gearing up for the Fed and ECB decisions. The pair is undergoing a correction and testing the 1.1167 level.

The US central bank is holding its meeting on 27–28 October. The market expects interest rates to remain unchanged, but investors are closely watching statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and signals about the continuing fight against inflation. More hawkish rhetoric could support the dollar.

French debt risks are weighing on the euro. Although Moody's decided to maintain France's Aa3 rating, the outlook remains negative. High borrowing costs and difficulties in reducing the budget deficit continue to undermine investor confidence in European assets.

The ECB faces a difficult decision, with its meeting scheduled for 28–29 October. Interest rates are expected to remain at 2.65%, but elevated energy prices are sustaining inflation risks. The central bank will have to strike a balance between the need to curb rising prices and the threat of a further economic slowdown.

The forecast for 27 October 2026 takes into account that the fundamental outlook for the EURUSD pair remains moderately negative. Slowing eurozone growth and problems in the French debt market are putting pressure on the euro, while the dollar is receiving support ahead of the Fed meeting. Statements from both central banks and their assessments of the inflation outlook will be crucial in the coming days.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price could develop a corrective wave as the signal plays out, with the target for the pullback at the 1.1200 resistance level. A rejection at this mark would open the way for continued downward momentum.

However, today's EURUSD forecast also envisages another scenario. The price could continue to decline and test the 1.1120 support level without testing resistance.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1200 and 1.1270
• Key support levels: 1.1120 and 1.1100

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A pullback towards the 1.1200 resistance level could signal a continued downtrend and set the stage for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for the EURUSD pair relate to uncertainty over the future monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, movements in the US dollar, and government bond yields. More dovish Fed rhetoric and falling bond yields could trigger euro appreciation.

Summary

The euro remains under pressure due to the economic situation in France and expectations surrounding interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the ECB. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 1.1200 before a decline.

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