EURUSD remains under pressure ahead of central banks' interest rate decisions

The euro is under pressure amid deteriorating eurozone economic indicators, France's budget problems and the resilience of the US economy. The current EURUSD rate is 1.1123. Read more in our analysis for 28 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Fed meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October
• Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index rose from 89.9 to 90.2 points
• The ECB is preparing for its meeting on 28–29 October
• EURUSD forecast for 28 October 2026: 1.1200 and 1.1120

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the eurozone composite PMI fell from 53.1 to 51.9 points, below analysts' forecast of 52.7 points. The manufacturing PMI declined from 52.9 to 52.4 points, while the services PMI dropped from 53.0 to 51.7 points. Although the indicators remain above 50 points, signalling an expansion in economic activity, the data point to slowing economic growth. Rising energy costs, weakening consumer demand and political instability in France are putting additional pressure on the region's economy.

Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index rose from 89.9 to 90.2 points, exceeding the forecast of 90.0. The improvement was mainly driven by increased optimism in manufacturing, while the assessment of current economic conditions deteriorated. The index's positive performance slightly improves the outlook for Germany's economy, but does not yet indicate a sustained recovery or provide significant support for the euro.

The ECB published the results of its quarterly bank lending survey, which showed a further tightening of credit conditions. In the third quarter, the net percentage of banks reporting tighter lending standards for corporate borrowers was 9%, compared with 14% for consumer credit. At the same time, demand for loans declined, mainly due to high borrowing costs. These developments indicate persistent constraints on investment and consumer activity, creating risks of a further slowdown in the eurozone economy.

The forecast for 28 October 2026 takes into account that the US economy, by contrast, continues to demonstrate relatively strong resilience. According to preliminary October data, the US composite PMI stood at 57.6 points, compared with 58.4 in September. Despite some slowing, the reading remains considerably higher than the equivalent eurozone indicator. Particular attention is also being paid to the acceleration in companies' selling price inflation to its fastest pace in more than four years, heightening concerns about persistently elevated inflationary pressure and supporting expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy.

Technical outlook

On the EURUSD D1 chart, prices formed resistance at 1.1260. Support at 1.1150 was broken, and a new support level has yet to form. Local resistance on H4 is at 1.1155, while support stands at 1.1115. The price has retested the lows of last summer. A rebound from this level could pave the way for the start of an uptrend, with a potential upside target at 1.1260.

However, today's EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario. Prices could continue declining and break below support around 1.1115, targeting 1.1030.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1155 and 1.1260
• Key support levels: 1.1150 and 1.1115

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout towards resistance at 1.1155 could signal the start of an upward trend and create conditions for opening long positions.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for EURUSD remain the upcoming Fed and ECB interest rate decisions and the regulators' comments on future monetary policy. More hawkish Fed rhetoric could strengthen the dollar, while ECB signals of a possible rate rise could support the euro. The release of US GDP data, inflation trends, France's budget problems and fluctuations in energy prices create further uncertainty.

Summary

Fundamental and technical factors largely point to a continuation of the EURUSD downtrend. More resilient economic performance in the US is supporting the dollar, while slowing business activity in the eurozone is putting pressure on the euro. From a technical perspective, prices could rise to 1.1260.

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