The Fed and ECB keep interest rates unchanged: EURUSD trades sideways

The fundamental outlook for the EURUSD pair remains mixed; however, the US dollar retains an advantage over the medium term, supported by the Federal Reserve's higher interest rates. The EURUSD rate currently stands at 1.1196. Discover more in our analysis for 30 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The ECB also held its key interest rate steady at 2.65%
• The Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged at 4.0%
• EURUSD forecast for 30 October 2026: 1.1260

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the Fed kept its interest rate range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. Ten FOMC members supported the decision, while two favoured a 25-basis-point hike. This split in the vote indicates continued concerns about inflation within the US central bank.

Data released on 29 October confirmed the resilience of the US economy. US GDP grew by an annualised 3.4% in Q3, following 2.2% in Q2, exceeding expectations of around 3.2%. Meanwhile, the PCE price index for September accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.4% a month earlier, while core PCE stood at 3.1%. Strong economic growth combined with persistent inflation increases the likelihood of further Fed monetary policy tightening.

The ECB held interest rates steady at 2.65%. The European central bank noted that continued increases in energy prices pose additional inflation risks while also worsening the outlook for economic growth. Despite the relative stability of core inflation, a prolonged energy shock increases the likelihood of second-round effects that could require further monetary policy tightening.

The fundamental outlook for the EURUSD pair on 30 October remains moderately negative for the euro. The ECB faces a difficult choice: raising interest rates could curb inflationary pressure and support the euro, but it would also increase the risk of an economic slowdown in the eurozone. Against this backdrop, expectations of a possible rate hike in December are becoming one of the main factors supporting the European currency.

Technical outlook

On the D1 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a resistance level at 1.1260 and support at 1.1115. A local resistance level on the H4 chart has formed at 1.1215, with support at 1.1125. The price has retested last summer’s lows. A rebound from this mark would open the way for an emerging uptrend, with a potential upside target at 1.1305.

However, today's EURUSD forecast also envisages an alternative scenario. The price could form a corrective wave and break below the 1.1115 support level, targeting 1.1030.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1215 and 1.1260
• Key support levels: 1.1115 and 1.1125

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout above the 1.1215 resistance level would signal the start of a new upward wave and create conditions for opening long positions.

Risk factors

The primary sources of uncertainty remain inflation trends in the US and the eurozone, shifts in expectations for the Fed's and ECB's December decisions, oil price volatility, and tensions in the European debt market. A substantial volume of speculative short positions in the euro increases the likelihood of sharp corrective moves even if the overall downtrend persists.

Summary

Fundamental factors indicate that the US dollar retains a moderate advantage. Despite an increased likelihood of further ECB monetary policy tightening, strong US economic growth and persistent inflation support dollar-denominated assets. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a corrective rise towards 1.1305.

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