Markets pause ahead of NFP: employment data holds the key to EURUSD's next move

The euro continues to lose ground following its recent attempts to recover. Today's key catalyst is the release of US employment data (Nonfarm Payrolls). The EURUSD rate currently stands at 1.1195. Discover more in our analysis for 6 November 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 29 thousand; projected at 65 thousand
• US unemployment rate: previously at 4.2%; projected at 4.2%
• EURUSD forecast for 6 November 2026: 1.1115

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the euro is ending the week under pressure from a stronger dollar. Investors have shifted their attention to the US labour market, the political implications of the US midterm elections, and the prospects for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

Fundamental analysis for 6 November 2026 takes into account that the US dollar has strengthened amid a sell-off in technology stocks and increased demand for safe-haven assets. The EURUSD rate has declined to 1.1200, with investor caution ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release providing additional support for the dollar.

The ECB has left the door open for further interest rate hikes. On 5 November, Christine Lagarde said that the regulator would assess incoming data ahead of its December meeting. Accelerating inflation and rising energy costs could require additional policy tightening. This remains a potential source of support for the euro.

Today, investors are awaiting the October Nonfarm Payrolls report. The economy is expected to add around 65 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to stand at 4.2%. Stronger-than-expected figures could further bolster the dollar, while readings below both the forecast and previous figures would strengthen expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy easing.

The forecast for 6 November 2026 indicates that the fundamental backdrop for EURUSD remains moderately negative for the euro. The dollar is supported by demand for safe-haven assets, while the European currency depends on the prospects for an ECB rate hike in December. The key event of today's session will be the US employment data: a strong report could increase pressure on the pair, while a weak one could set the stage for a recovery in the euro.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price could extend the downward wave as the pattern's signal plays out, with the downside target at the 1.1115 support level. A breakout below this mark would open the door for a broader downtrend.

However, today's EURUSD forecast also envisages an alternative scenario. The price could form a corrective wave and test the 1.1240 resistance level before declining.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1240 and 1.1310
• Key support levels: 1.1185 and 1.1115

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below the support level, with the price consolidating below 1.1185, would create conditions for opening short positions and confirm the continuation of the downtrend.

Risk factors

The main risk to a decline in the EURUSD rate is a weak US labour market report, which could reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December and weaken demand for the dollar. Falling oil prices and US Treasury yields would pose an additional risk.

Summary

The US dollar continues to put pressure on the euro ahead of the October Nonfarm Payrolls release. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards 1.1115 following a correction.

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