EURUSD faces a new test: US inflation could dash hopes of a euro recovery

The EURUSD pair is awaiting the release of US inflation data, with the rate currently standing at 1.1226. Discover more in our analysis for 10 November 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US CPI for October: projected at 3.9%, previously at 3.7%
• Core inflation is forecast at around 2.8%
• EURUSD forecast for 10 November 2026: 1.1150

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the euro is attempting to hold its ground amid dollar weakness following the US midterm elections. However, strong US economic data and expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are limiting the scope for a euro recovery.

The dollar has stabilised ahead of the US inflation release. Following its recent decline, the US currency has entered a consolidation phase. Investors are awaiting October CPI data, with headline inflation expected to rise to 3.9% from 3.7% previously, while core inflation is projected at around 2.8%. Higher readings could boost demand for the dollar.

A Federal Reserve rate hike in December remains a possibility. Strong US employment data for October and persistent inflationary pressure have shifted market expectations. The likelihood of a December rate hike is currently estimated at approximately 85.0%, which gives the dollar an advantage over the euro.

Eurozone inflation has reached 4.0%. Consumer prices rose by 4.0% year-on-year in October, up from 3.8% a month earlier, primarily driven by an acceleration in energy inflation to 20.8%. Christine Lagarde warned that a sustained increase in energy costs could require an additional ECB interest rate hike in December.

Today's EURUSD forecast takes into account that political changes in the US have so far failed to bring about sustained dollar weakness. The Democrats' victory in the midterm elections initially caused the US currency to decline, but investors quickly shifted their attention to inflation and the Federal Reserve outlook. Uncertainty surrounding trade and fiscal policies continues to affect the dollar.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Doji reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price could extend its corrective wave as the pattern's signal plays out, with a pullback target at the 1.1260 resistance level. A rebound from this mark would open the way for continued downward momentum.

However, today's EURUSD forecast also envisages an alternative scenario. The price could form a downward wave and test the 1.1150 support level without first testing resistance.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1260 and 1.1300
• Key support levels: 1.1150 and 1.1100

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A rebound in the EURUSD rate from the 1.1260 resistance level would create conditions for opening short positions and confirm a continuation of the downtrend.

Risk factors

The main risk factors remain uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve and ECB policies, a possible deterioration in the eurozone economy, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rising energy costs could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the European economy while also restricting its economic growth.

Summary

While awaiting the data release, the EURUSD pair has halted its rise and is consolidating around 1.1226. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a continuation of the corrective wave towards 1.1260 before a decline.

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