EURUSD slumps towards 1.1050: inflation once again supports the dollar

The EURUSD rate is falling for the fourth consecutive session and testing a key support level at 1.1044 amid a stronger dollar, elevated US inflation, and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Find out more in our analysis for 13 November 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• High US inflation strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December and bolstered the dollar
• Rising oil prices following fresh hawkish statements from the US on Iran are once again increasing inflation risks
• EURUSD forecast for 13 November 2026: 1.1000

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is falling for the fourth consecutive session and is currently trading at 1.1058. The pair remains under pressure as the dollar strengthens following higher-than-expected US inflation and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening.

The CPI data released earlier this week fuelled expectations of a December interest rate hike. Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller suggested that a 50-basis-point increase could be possible if core inflation remains elevated. The market currently estimates the probability of such a scenario at approximately 14.5%, whereas it had barely been priced in before the CPI release.

The next key indicator will be the US Producer Price Index for October. Headline PPI is expected to rise by 6.6% year-on-year, while core PPI could increase by 5.0%. Stronger figures could further reinforce expectations of restrictive Federal Reserve policy and put pressure on the EURUSD pair.

A renewed rise in oil prices has provided additional support for the dollar. US President Donald Trump stated that Washington does not need an agreement with Iran, dampening hopes of an imminent resolution to the conflict and reigniting inflation concerns through the energy market.

The outlook for the euro is less encouraging. The ECB has already raised interest rates twice this year and is expected to take another step in December. However, growing economic uncertainty increases the likelihood that the tightening cycle will be paused thereafter.

Meanwhile, ECB official Philip Lane's rhetoric remains moderately hawkish. He continues to highlight persistent core inflation and the risk of second-round price effects, preventing the market from fully shifting towards expectations of policy easing. Nevertheless, the divergence between Federal Reserve and ECB policy expectations continues to favour the dollar.

The EURUSD forecast for 13 November 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair continues to show strong bearish momentum following a reversal from the 1.1251 resistance level. The price broke below the middle Bollinger Band and fell towards the indicator's lower boundary, testing a key support level at 1.1044. Today's EURUSD forecast suggests a further decline, with a potential target at 1.1000.

MACD is well below the zero line, with the indicator line below the signal line, confirming sellers' advantage. The Stochastic Oscillator is near oversold territory: the %K line stands at 22.97 and has already risen above the %D line at 20.60. This leaves room for a local technical rebound but does not yet signal a reversal of the main trend.

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1044 support level would further confirm the bearish scenario. The main scenario would be invalidated if the EURUSD pair returns above the 1.1107 resistance level. In this case, selling pressure would ease, with the next recovery targets at 1.1130 and 1.1153.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1107 and 1.1153
• Key support levels: 1.1044 and 1.1000

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below key support followed by EURUSD consolidating below 1.1044 would confirm that strong bearish momentum remains intact and create conditions for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario would be a weaker-than-expected PPI report, which could reduce the likelihood of an aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike and trigger a dollar correction. A further risk is the pair's technical oversold condition after four sessions of declines. A return above 1.1107 would weaken the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a recovery towards 1.1153.

Summary

The EURUSD forecast for 13 November 2026 points to continued bearish momentum, with a potential downside target at 1.1000 and further confirmation should the price break below 1.1044.

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