EURUSD weekly forecast: range persists, but sentiment improves

The EURUSD pair ended the week near 1.1660, remaining under the influence of expectations for a December Fed rate cut, which rose to nearly 87%. Investors are factoring in mixed US data: initial jobless claims hit a three-year low, while the Challenger report showed a notable rise in layoffs. Against this backdrop, the dollar corrected.

Despite the rise, the EURUSD pair remains in a broad range between 1.1550 and 1.1683. This review will analyse the factors likely to influence the pair’s movement during 8–14 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair closed the week higher at 1.1662 amid strong expectations for a December Fed rate cut. The market estimates the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut at 87%, with another two to three rounds of easing projected for 2026. Additional pressure on the dollar comes from discussions about a potential change in Fed leadership: the nomination of Kevin Hassett has strengthened expectations of a more dovish policy trajectory
• Current trend: the EURUSD pair maintains its upward trajectory after rebounding from the 1.1466 support level. The pair approached key resistance at 1.1683, which previously capped gains. The price is hovering above the middle Bollinger band, indicating bullish dominance. Indicators confirm a moderately bullish bias: MACD remains in positive territory, while the overbought Stochastic Oscillator suggests a possible short-term pullback
• Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests trading within the 1.1550–1.1683 range. A breakout above the 1.1683 resistance level would open the path to the next target around 1.1778. If the price holds above 1.1550, this would support continued growth. Losing the 1.1550 level would increase the risk of a deeper correction towards the key support level at 1.1466

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair ends the week higher at 1.1662. The market has almost fully priced in a December rate cut, with the probability of a 25-basis-point move around 87%. For 2026, participants expect another two to three rounds of easing.

An additional source of pressure on the US dollar is the growing discussion about a potential change in Fed leadership. Kevin Hassett, White House economic adviser and advocate for faster rate cuts, is increasingly mentioned as a potential replacement for Jerome Powell in May. This is boosting expectations of a more dovish policy path next year.

Weekly data sent mixed signals. Initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest level in more than three years, although this figure is often distorted by the Thanksgiving holiday period. Meanwhile, the Challenger report recorded 71.3 thousand layoffs in November, the highest figure for the month since 2022, highlighting underlying weakness in the labour market.

The market remains focused on the delayed release of September’s PCE data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, along with household income and spending figures. These releases could set the tone for expectations ahead of the Fed’s meeting this week, scheduled for 10 December.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair continues its upward movement after rebounding from the 1.1466 support level. The price is approaching the 1.1683 resistance level, which has capped gains multiple times in previous months. The pair is holding above the middle Bollinger band, indicating that buyers are in control.

The upper Bollinger Band is starting to rise, signalling increased volatility and the market’s readiness to test resistance. MACD remains in positive territory, but histogram growth is slowing, suggesting a need for a correction before a new impulse. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.

Immediate support levels lie near 1.1550, where the middle Bollinger Band is located. The key support level remains at 1.1466.

The resistance level is at 1.1683; a breakout would open the path to the next target around 1.1778.

Overall, the outlook remains moderately bullish. As long as the price holds above 1.1550, the potential for a retest of 1.1683 remains. Losing this zone would increase the risk of a deeper correction.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair ended the week higher at 1.1662, supported by strong expectations of a December Fed rate cut. The market estimates the likelihood of a 25-basis-point move at 87%, with two to three cycles of easing projected for 2026. Discussions surrounding a potential change in Fed leadership added to pressure on the dollar, with the nomination of Kevin Hassett increasing expectations for a more dovish policy approach.

The technical picture remains moderately bullish. The EURUSD pair is trading above dynamic support at 1.1550, continuing its movement towards the key resistance level at 1.1683. The price is hovering above the middle Bollinger Band, and MACD remains in positive territory, although histogram growth has slowed. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, creating a risk of a short-term pullback before a new impulse.

• Buy scenario

Buying is appropriate as long as the price stays above 1.1550.

A breakout above the 1.1683 resistance level would confirm continued growth.

Targets: 1.1720–1.1778

Stop-loss: below 1.1530

• Sell scenario

Shorts are preferable if the price breaks below 1.1550, which would open the path to the key support level at 1.1466.

Targets: 1.1466 → 1.1400

Stop-loss: above 1.1650

Conclusion

The baseline scenario suggests consolidation within the 1.1550–1.1683 range. A consolidation above 1.1683 would signal a resumption of the uptrend. A loss of the 1.1550 level would increase the risk of a deeper correction towards 1.1466.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is expected to maintain a neutral trajectory during 8–14 December 2025. The market is pricing in an 87% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, while mixed US data limits the dollar’s upside. Uncertainty ahead of the Fed meeting is holding back the trend.

The technical picture remains sideways. The pair is trading within the 1.1550–1.1683 range, without breaking the local resistance level. MACD is weak, and the Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory. Key levels include support at 1.1550 and resistance at 1.1683.

The baseline scenario suggests consolidation within 1.1550–1.1650 with limited upside potential until the Fed decision. A breakout above 1.1683 would open the path to 1.1778, while a drop below 1.1550 would raise the risk of a correction.

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