EURUSD weekly forecast: the downward correction is still underway

The EURUSD pair enters the week of 23–27 March around 1.1555 after recovering from lows near 1.1400. Pressure on the dollar eased amid signals of a more hawkish stance from other central banks, although the Federal Reserve’s position remains a constraining factor. The regulator kept the rate unchanged and pointed to the need for a sustained slowdown in inflation. US macroeconomic data remains mixed: weakness in the housing sector is combined with a stable labour market.

Technically, the EURUSD pair is in a downward correction after the January rally towards 1.2000. The pair is now trading in the 1.1550–1.1600 area, remaining below the middle Bollinger Band. Indicators point to continued selling pressure. A breakout below the 1.1500 level will increase downside risks towards 1.1450–1.1400, while resistance is located in the 1.1650–1.1700 area.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair ended the week around 1.1555. Pressure on the dollar increased amid signals of a more hawkish stance from other central banks. The Federal Reserve held the rate steady, citing the need for a sustained slowdown in inflation. US macroeconomic data came out mixed. As a result, the dollar remains under pressure, but its decline is limited by the regulator’s hawkish stance
• Current trend: after rising towards the 1.2000 area in January, the pair started to decline. Since late February, a downward structure has been forming with lower highs and lows. In early March, the decline accelerated, reaching a low near 1.1400, after which a corrective rebound began. The price is now testing the 1.1550–1.1600 zone, remaining below the middle Bollinger Band. MACD is in negative territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator indicates a short-term recovery. Selling pressure persists
• Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests movement in the 1.1500–1.1650 range with a moderately bearish bias. A breakout below 1.1500 will increase downside risks towards 1.1450–1.1400. A consolidation above 1.1650 would signal a more sustainable recovery and easing pressure

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the week around 1.1555. Pressure on the US currency increased amid signals of a more hawkish stance from other major central banks.

The Federal Reserve held the rate steady. Jerome Powell noted that a sustained slowdown in inflation is required in order to cut rates, which restrains expectations of policy easing.

US macroeconomic data came out mixed. New home sales fell by 17.6% m/m in January compared to expectations of a 2.7% decline, indicating cooling demand. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in at 205 thousand (expected 215 thousand), while continuing claims were 1.857 million versus a forecast of 1.850 million. This reflects labour market stability.

As a result, the US dollar remains under pressure, but resilient employment data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance limit the potential for further declines.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD daily chart shows that after rising in January and reaching new highs near 1.2000, the market shifted into a decline. Since late February, a downward structure has been forming, with the price consistently printing lower highs and lower lows, indicating a corrective move within a broader structure.

Downside momentum intensified in early March when quotes broke below the middle Bollinger Band and gained a foothold in the lower half of the range. A low formed around 1.1400, from where an attempt to recover began.

The current move is corrective: the price has returned to the 1.1550–1.1600 area but remains below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating continued selling pressure. Upside attempts are still limited and are not supported by sustained momentum.

Indicators confirm weakness: MACD is in negative territory and continues to decline, while the Stochastic Oscillator turned up from oversold territory, signalling a short-term rebound.

Overall, the market remains under pressure. While the price holds below 1.1650–1.1700, the downside scenario remains the priority with a risk of a retest of the 1.1400 level. A consolidation above this zone would be the first signal of a more sustainable recovery.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair ended the week around 1.1555, with pressure on the dollar increasing amid signals of a more hawkish stance from other central banks. The Federal Reserve left the rate unchanged, and Jerome Powell noted that a sustained slowdown in inflation is required to cut it. As a result, the dollar is under pressure, but its decline is limited by the Fed’s hawkish stance.

Technically, after rising towards the 1.2000 area in January, the pair entered a downward phase. A downward structure with lower highs and lows has been forming since late February. In early March, the decline accelerated, with the low recorded around 1.1400, after which a corrective rebound began. The price is now trading in the 1.1550–1.1600 area, remaining below the middle Bollinger Band. MACD is in negative territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator signals a short-term recovery. The nearest resistance level is located in the 1.1650–1.1700 range.

• Buy scenario

Holding above 1.1500 may support a corrective rise with a target of 1.1650–1.1700.

• Sell scenario

A breakout below 1.1500 would increase pressure on the pair and open the way towards 1.1450–1.1400.

Conclusion: the baseline scenario is consolidation in the 1.1500–1.1650 range with a moderately bearish bias amid persistent selling pressure.

Summary

The EURUSD pair closed the week around 1.1555. Pressure on the dollar increased amid signals of a more hawkish stance from other central banks. The Fed kept the rate unchanged, citing the need for a sustained slowdown in inflation, which is curbing expectations for easing. US data came out mixed: a sharp drop in new home sales signals cooling demand, while the labour market remains stable. This limits the potential for further dollar weakness.

Technically, the EURUSD pair is in a downward correction phase after the January rally towards 1.2000. Since late February, a structure of lower highs and lower lows has been forming. The price is now hovering in the 1.1550–1.1600 area below the middle Bollinger Band, while MACD remains in negative territory. The resistance level is located in the 1.1650–1.1700 area. A breakout below 1.1500 will increase downside risks towards 1.1450–1.1400.

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