EURUSD weekly forecast: the 1.1213 support level comes under pressure

The EURUSD pair ended the week near 1.1250 after another sharp decline, while the US Dollar Index rose above 102, recording its third consecutive week of gains. The pair has approached the key 1.1213 support level, with technical indicators already signalling deeply oversold conditions.

This week, the market's reaction to this area will determine whether the downtrend continues.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the primary driver will be a reassessment of the Federal Reserve outlook following the September employment report, which was released ahead of the new trading week. The market will compare the state of the labour market with the need for further rate hikes. Robust data would allow investors to maintain hawkish expectations and support US yields. Clear signs of cooling in employment, by contrast, could trigger profit-taking in the US dollar after three weeks of gains
• Current trend: on the daily chart, the EURUSD pair remains in a pronounced downtrend and is trading near the lower Bollinger Band. The decline accelerated following a breakout below the 1.1495 level, with the price almost reaching the 1.1213 support level. MACD is deep in negative territory and continues to fall, confirming the sellers' advantage. The Stochastic Oscillator has dropped to around 18 points and is in oversold territory. This increases the likelihood of a local rebound, but there are still no signs of a full-scale reversal
• Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests continued pressure on the EURUSD rate if the 1.1213 level is broken. A move below this zone would confirm a continued downward structure and open the way towards 1.1120–1.1100. While the support level holds, the market may move into a technical correction. To reduce selling pressure noticeably, the pair needs to recover at least above 1.1375

EURUSD key levels for next week

The US dollar entered October with strong momentum. The DXY Index rose above 102, while the yield on 10-year US Treasuries reached around 5.34% during the week, the highest level since 2002. Rising yields are widening the US dollar's interest rate advantage and increasing pressure on the EURUSD pair.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials also support the hawkish backdrop. Neel Kashkari noted that it remains difficult to determine how high rates will need to rise to bring inflation back to target. For the currency market, this means the recent policy tightening is not yet being viewed as the end of the cycle.

Another risk is linked to energy prices. Brent crude rose back above 100 USD amid supply concerns and reports of a possible expansion of the US military presence in the Middle East, including another aircraft carrier group and additional troops. This factor is fuelling inflation risks and is therefore maintaining pressure for higher interest rates.

The fundamental environment remains favourable for the US dollar, with a strong economy, high yields, and persistent inflation risks all working in the same direction. The EURUSD pair will need a noticeable easing in at least one of these factors to form a sustained recovery.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a sustained downward structure following the August reversal from the 1.1710 level. Successive breakouts below 1.1600, 1.1495, and 1.1375 have brought the pair directly to the crucial horizontal support level at 1.12127.

This zone is also located near the lower boundary of the current descending channel and is becoming the last significant technical barrier before a further decline. If it is broken, the next targets will be 1.1120 and the psychological 1.1100 level. The nearest resistance levels are located at 1.1375, followed by 1.1495 and 1.1555.

The price is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, while MACD continues to decline in negative territory. The Stochastic Oscillator remains below 20, indicating strong oversold conditions and increasing the likelihood of a corrective move.

The technical structure therefore remains bearish, but selling directly above 1.1213 looks risky. A confirmed breakout below the support level is required for the trend to continue.

EURUSD trading scenario for next week

The EURUSD pair has approached a strong support level after an almost uninterrupted decline, so entering a short position at the current price carries an increased risk of a rebound.

Sell scenario

Consolidation below 1.1213 would confirm a continued downward move and create conditions for the pair to reach new local lows.

Entry level: sell stop 1.1208

Take profit: 1.1120

Stop loss: 1.1260

Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:1.7

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 9 October 2026 (server time, GMT+3).

If the EURUSD pair remains above 1.1213, the trade idea will not be activated.

Summary

The EURUSD pair begins the new week directly above the key 1.1213 support level after a prolonged period of US dollar strength. The EURUSD forecast for 5–9 October suggests further declines if this zone is broken, with the nearest target at 1.1120.

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