EURUSD weekly forecast: support at 1.1044 comes under pressure
The EURUSD pair will enter the new week near 1.1050 after four consecutive sessions of declines. Strong US inflation has raised expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, while the ECB appears to have less room to continue its tightening cycle.
The pair has approached a key support level at 1.1044, and its reaction to this level will determine how the downward move develops.
- Price at the time of writing
- 1.1050
- Bias for the week
- BearishD1
- Weekly range
- 1.0950–1.1200
- Trigger level
- 1.1044
- Forecast invalidation level
- 1.1272
- Main event
- FOMC minutes
Updated 13 November 2026, 10:49 (UTC+3)
What moves EURUSD next week
- Market focus: the main driver remains the reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path following strong US inflation in October. The CPI report has fuelled expectations of a December rate hike, while Christopher Waller has even suggested that a 50-basis-point increase could be possible if core inflation remains high. Next week, the market will look for confirmation of the Fed's hawkish stance in new macroeconomic data and the minutes of its October meeting
- Current trend: the EURUSD pair has accelerated its decline and almost reached the 1.1044 support level. The price is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, MACD remains firmly in negative territory, and the Stochastic Oscillator has fallen well below 20. Downward momentum remains strong, although extreme oversold conditions increase the likelihood of a short-term rebound
- Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario envisages further declines following a confirmed breakout below 1.1044. In this case, the EURUSD pair would have room to move below 1.1000 towards the 1.0950 area. As long as the support level holds, a technical correction towards 1.1140–1.1200 remains possible
Week calendar
| Day | Event | Why it matters for EURUSD |
|---|---|---|
| 17 November | US retail sales for October | Following the strong inflation report, the market will assess the resilience of consumer demand. Robust sales would support the case for a longer period of Fed tightening and strengthen the dollar. |
| 18 November | Eurozone final inflation for October | The preliminary estimate showed annual inflation accelerating to 4.0%. Confirmation of a high reading could support expectations of a hawkish ECB policy stance and limit pressure on the euro. |
| 18 November | FOMC minutes | The minutes of the October meeting will help assess how broadly further rate hikes are supported within the Fed and how the central bank itself views inflation risks. |
EURUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, the EURUSD rate remains in a pronounced downtrend following the August reversal from the 1.1700 level. Attempts to stabilise in October and early November failed to produce a sustained recovery, and renewed selling pressure has brought the pair back towards its lows for the year.
A key support level stands at 1.10444. A breakout below this mark would confirm the continuation of the bearish structure and open the way first below the psychological 1.1000 level, and then towards the 1.0950 area. The nearest resistance level lies around 1.1140, followed by 1.1200 and the key 1.12724 level.
The price is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band. MACD remains below zero, with its main line once again below the signal line, confirming increased bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has fallen to around 6–14 and is deep in oversold territory.
Thus, the technical advantage remains with sellers, although opening short positions directly near 1.1044 is risky. A confirmed breakout below the support level is required for the decline to continue.
EURUSD trading scenario for next week
The EURUSD pair is trading directly above a key support level while also being heavily oversold from a technical perspective. Selling should therefore be considered only once the price consolidates below 1.1044, confirming the continuation of the current trend.
A return and consolidation above 1.1272 would invalidate the bearish forecast and indicate a deeper correction.
EURUSD trading scenario
What would change the forecast
- Weak US retail sales and more dovish signals from the FOMC minutes could reduce expectations of a December rate hike and trigger a correction in the dollar
- Consolidation above 1.1272 would disrupt the current sequence of lower highs and invalidate the bearish scenario
- Growing expectations of an ECB rate hike in December could narrow the gap in interest rate expectations and support the euro
EURUSD forecast next week: questions and answers
Will the euro rise or fall next week?
The outlook for 16–20 November has shifted to an entirely bearish scenario. A confirmed breakout below 1.1044 would create conditions for a decline below 1.1000 and a move towards 1.0950.
What are the key EURUSD levels for 16–20 November 2026?
The main support level is located at 1.1044, with crucial reference levels below it at 1.1000 and 1.0950. The nearest resistance levels are around 1.1140 and 1.1200, while the 1.1272 mark would invalidate the baseline bearish forecast.
What will move the euro next week?
The market will assess the resilience of the US economy following the strong inflation report, with retail sales and the FOMC minutes providing the key signals. The final estimate of eurozone inflation for October will also be significant for the euro.
Summary
The EURUSD pair will enter the new week near the critical support level at 1.1044 following renewed dollar strength and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. Deeply oversold conditions allow for a local rebound, but the main momentum remains bearish.
The EURUSD forecast for 16–20 November suggests further declines if the 1.1044 level is broken, with the nearest target at 1.0950.
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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.