Disclaimer: the information in this article is based on the analysis of reputable financial resources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research, but it should be taken into account that economic changes may significantly affect market conditions, which may lead to changes in forecasts. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making important financial decisions.
The EURUSD pair in the first half of 2024 has been a rollercoaster of volatility, marked by sharp fluctuations within each day as economic uncertainties and central bank policies clash. Geopolitical events and macroeconomic indicators put serious pressure on the pair. What will be the forecast for the EURUSD pair in the coming years?
This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 and highlights the main factors, determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This will give investors and traders a comprehensive insight into potential short-term EURUSD movements, providing them with the information needed to make informed decisions.
Table of contents:
Before proceeding to a detailed EURUSD analysis and forecast for 2024, let us consider the key factors that have the biggest impact on the currency pair.
Support:
Resistance:
In 2024, the EURUSD trajectory will likely be shaped by the eurozone's economic recovery, the Fed and ECB monetary policies, and inflationary and geopolitical factors. Forecasts remain mixed, ranging between 1.0650 and 1.1700.
Understanding the key factors affecting the EURUSD rate is crucial for accurate exchange rate forecasts. Below are the main factors that will determine the currency pair’s direction in the coming years.
Evaluating and understanding these factors is crucial for analysing future currency fluctuations and creating EURUSD forecasts. The assessment of the pair's movements and events in 2024 shows that these drivers will determine the trend not only this year but for several years ahead.
In 2024, the EURUSD pair continues to trade within a narrow range, with the upper boundary at 1.1255 and the lower at 1.0500. Typically, after the price breaks from such a range, a new trend could develop for the width of the range. The quotes are currently at the upper boundary of this protracted sideways trend, but need a strong fundamental shift to break above it. Let us look at factors that may prompt traders to move the pair beyond the range.
Following a post-pandemic recovery, the eurozone is projected to see moderate economic growth. The region’s economy expanded by 3.4% in 2022 and by a mere 0.5% in 2023. According to the IMF forecasts, the eurozone’s economic growth will be 0.9% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. In Q2 2024, the US economy grew by 3% year-on-year, while the eurozone’s GDP increased by only 0.6% over the same period.
Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
The current data shows that the eurozone’s economy will grow by 0.2% in Q3 in line with the Q2 pace. According to the ECB, the annual real GDP growth rate in the eurozone will average 0.8% in 2024, reaching 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. However, Germany, the largest economy in Europe, showed stagnation in Q2. It is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
The US Federal Reserve's stance on inflation and interest rates will be a key factor in the EURUSD forecast. Strong US labour market data has significantly changed market expectations, sharply reducing the likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut at upcoming meetings. This report has virtually eliminated the possibility of a substantial rate cut in November, raising questions about whether there will be cuts at all in the near future.
Meanwhile, the eurozone’s weak economic growth and easing inflation, which fell below the ECB's 2% target in September, have increased expectations of a potential rate cut at the ECB’s October meeting. This could be the third rate cut this year, adding further pressure on the euro.
As mentioned above, inflation directly impacts central banks’ interest rate decisions. The ECB’s forecast indicates temporary inflation growth in the eurozone in Q4 2024, after which it will gradually decline. Overall inflation is expected to return to the 2% target by the end of 2025. The main factors affecting inflation include changes in energy and service prices.
Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
In September 2024, consumer prices in the eurozone rose by only 1.8% year-on-year, which was below the 2% ECB target for the first time since June 2021. This fall in inflation could prompt the European regulator to accelerate rate cuts, negatively impacting the euro.
In August 2024, the US trade deficit contracted by 10.8%, reaching 70.4 billion USD. Meanwhile, Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, saw its foreign trade surplus rise to the highest level since May, coming in at 225 billion EUR. The increase in US trade deficit could weaken the US dollar, while the growing trade surplus in the eurozone might support the euro.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, remains a factor able to increase market volatility. The conflict between Israel and Lebanon may significantly influence economic growth and inflation in the eurozone, especially if pressure on energy prices mounts further.
Since the onset of the conflict, the cost of Brent crude oil and European natural gas have increased by about 9% and 34%, respectively at their peak. The World Bank warned in its quarterly report last week that crude oil prices could reach over 150 USD per barrel if further escalation occurs. As a result, the current escalation in the Middle East could negatively impact the EUR rate.
Let us have a look at the daily chart of the EURUSD currency pair. As part of the technical analysis of the EURUSD currency pair for 2024, we will assess the location of the nearest support and resistance levels, explore the formation of chart patterns, and analyse technical indicators.
The EURUSD quotes broke below the EMA-200 line, suggesting a downtrend. However, the current support level, which the pair is clinging to, is a lower boundary of a long-term sideways range. The pair has been trading within this range since the beginning of 2023, so there is a high chance of a rebound from the 1.0500 level, followed by an upward movement towards 1.0655.
If the price rebounds downwards from the 1.0705 level, it could maintain its downward momentum, with the EURUSD pair falling to 1.0425. The bearish impulse could be triggered by a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel. If sellers keep the signal line on the MACD indicator intact, this will add to the bearish sentiment about the pair.
In case of aggressive pressure from buyers and consolidation of the currency pair above the 1.0705 level, which will indicate the breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, growth could continue towards the 1.0995 level. In this scenario, the current decline, which we can see, should be viewed as a downward correction. The general growth target could be the upper boundary of the sideways range at 1.1225.
A negative scenario for buyers might be strong pressure from sellers, pushing the price below 1.0425. This may indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the sideways range, with the first target for the decline at 1.0115. In technical analysis, a breakout of the long-term price range at least pushes the price to the width of this movement or indicates the beginning of a new trend.
The current EURUSD technical picture indicates the high significance of the 1.0500, 1.0705 and 1.0425 levels. Testing of these levels will determine the further vector of EURUSD movement. Investors and traders should closely follow the signals of technical indicators and market reactions to key levels.
To prepare a longer-term EURUSD forecast, we will examine the weekly chart of the pair. We will apply technical analysis tools, highlight three possible scenarios, and mark crucial levels on the EURUSD weekly chart. This will help assess the pair’s potential movements in the long term.
Bullish scenario: the first thing to note is that a large triangle pattern has been forming since 16 July 2023. Typically, this can be a reversal or trend continuation pattern. In this case, the price broke above the pattern’s upper boundary on 11 August 2024, driven by a more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The target for the pattern completion is the 1.1905 level. However, the price is now undergoing a downward correction, and will likely test the upper boundary of the triangle pattern at 1.0875 before continuing its upward trajectory.
A rebound from the upper boundary of the triangle pattern followed by a breakout of the 1.1205 level will be a primary confirmation of potential EURUSD growth for buyers. If the price secures above the crucial resistance level, this will drive potential growth to 1.1905.
Bearish scenario: a robust US labour market report, which ruled out a significant Federal Reserve rate cut in November 2024 and generated discussions on whether there will be a cut at all, is a strong signal for a potential decline. Against this background, the pair reversed from the key 1.1205 resistance level.
The quotes are now declining, and the first support on the way of sellers will be a test of the upper boundary of the triangle pattern. Breaking the 1.0875 level may indicate that prices return within the pattern and continue falling to the lower boundary at 1.0705, which could lead to a further decline to 1.0435. This scenario is possible in case of continued expectations of a more restrained Federal Reserve interest rate cut and weak economic data from the eurozone.
Sideways scenario: the uptrend ended at the beginning of 2023, and since then the EURUSD pair has been moving within a sideways range, with the upper boundary at 1.1225 and the lower at 1.0565. The quotes have approached both the upper and lower boundaries of the range. In September 2024, the price rebounded from the upper boundary again, and could head towards the lower boundary.
In this case, the EURUSD price could remain in a trendless market for a while provided there is a relative balance in economic data and a general reduction in the Federal Reserve and ECB interest rates.
Key support levels:
Key resistance levels:
EURUSD forecasts for 2024 from leading financial institutions provide valuable insights for traders and investors who do not have the time for their analysis. These forecasts are based on the assessment of macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and market sentiment. Below are expert opinions from banks and financial companies regarding possible EURUSD movements in 2024.
In addition to forecasts of financial companies and large banks, AI algorithms are used increasingly more to make accurate EURUSD forecasts for 2024. These models are based on advanced forecasting algorithms, historical data, and machine learning methods to create more accurate forecasts based on historical data.
While artificial intelligence cannot take into account sudden events such as sharp improvements in the US labour market, it provides a statistically-based approach to analysing future trends. Below are the EURUSD forecasts for 2024 from leading AI platforms showing the growing importance of technology in such forecasting.
EURUSD movements in the long term (2025-2026) will continue to depend on the interplay of macroeconomic factors, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. While 2024 may be dominated by short-term news such as interest rate cuts, experts' forecasts for 2025 and 2026 focus on the bigger picture. Attention will be paid to economic growth trends, inflation control and changes in ECB and Fed monetary policy. Below are the long-term forecasts from key financial firms.
The ECB's outlook for 2025 and 2026 will largely depend on how well it manages to control inflation and maintain growth in the eurozone. If inflation continues to fall, the ECB could shift to a looser monetary policy by 2025, focusing on supporting economic growth and employment rather than fighting inflation.
ING’s long-term forecast for EURUSD suggests that the euro may start recovering in 2025 and 2026, as the Eurozone economy stabilises and both the ECB and Fed complete their tightening cycles.
MUFG's long-term outlook for the EURUSD pair remains bullish but suggests that the euro’s gains will be moderate due to persistent challenges in Europe, such as demographic changes and the need for structural economic reforms.
Wells Fargo offers a more bearish outlook for the EURUSD pair for 2025-2026. Their analysis indicates that structural problems in the US and Europe will keep the currency pair in a narrow range.
Erste Group is cautiously optimistic about the long-term prospects of the EURUSD currency pair. The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points had little impact on the exchange rate, as the market has largely anticipated this move. However, pressure on the USD will persist as further Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected.
Company / Date | 1Q 2025 | 2Q 2025 | 3Q 2025 | 4Q 2025 | 1Q 2026 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ECB | 1.10 | - | - | - | 1.10 |
ING | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
MUFG | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.16 | - | - |
Wells Fargo | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.06 | 1.04 |
Erste Group | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.15 | - | - |
AI-based models offer a different perspective on long-term forecasts for the EURUSD currency pair by applying sophisticated algorithms to analyse historical data, macroeconomic trends, and technical patterns. While these models are not immune to unpredictable events, they provide data-driven insights into potential movements of the currency pair in 2025-2026. Let us take a closer look at EURUSD forecasts from well-known AI platforms for the next two years. All quotes listed are as of 23 October 2024.
Wallet Investor's AI model predicts a gradual strengthening of the US dollar against the euro in 2025-2026. The forecast is based on assumptions of stabilising inflation and sustained economic growth in the US.
The Coin Index model offers a more aggressive long-term outlook, suggesting that the EURUSD pair will begin to decline strongly as early as early 2025, with a sharp drop by the end of 2026.
Long Forecast offers a bullish outlook for EURUSD with minor corrections, suggesting that the US dollar will maintain its strength due to its status as a global safe-haven currency and the resilience of the US economy. However, in some cases, the dollar may start to lose ground against the euro.
Panda Forecast offers a more optimistic outlook for EURUSD, expecting the euro to strengthen in the long term due to economic growth in the eurozone and the US Federal Reserve's shift to a neutral monetary policy.
AI model / Date | 2025 | 2026 |
---|---|---|
Wallet Investor | 1.0520 | 1.0260 |
Coin Index | 0.9768 - 1.0812 | 0.8486 - 0.9788 |
Long Forecast | 1.0880 | 1.1460 |
Panda Forecast | 1.0706 | 1.3000 |
When making a EURUSD forecast for several years ahead, it is important to consider various risks and factors that may affect the accuracy of the forecast. While expert opinions from leading financial companies and banks, as well as AI models, provide valuable insights, unforeseen events can significantly change the direction of the pair. Below are the risks and general thoughts to consider when assessing the EURUSD outlook for 2024-2026.
The EURUSD is expected to see significant changes from 2024 to 2026, with both bullish and bearish scenarios likely to emerge. Forecasts from various financial institutions emphasise the critical role of economic policy and inflation expectations in predicting the EURUSD rate.
Some analysts suggest that the pair will remain in a sideways movement between 1.0500 and 1.1000, while others predict a possible rise to 1.1500 and several AI models signal a fall below 0.9000 by 2026. However, risks such as geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures could significantly impact the pair's further fluctuations.
Overall, EURUSD dynamics will depend on a variety of factors, including central bank actions and general economic conditions in the US and the eurozone.
EUR/USD is set to rise in 2025. EURUSD is currently moving in a sideways range between 1.1225 and 1.0565. A breakout above the upper boundary may signal a potential upward movement towards 1.1905, while a breakout below the lower boundary will open the way for a downtrend with targets at 1.0200 and 0.9700.
Whether now is a good time to buy or sell EURUSD depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and market analysis. Traders often evaluate fundamental factors such as interest rate differentials, inflation data, and global economic conditions. Technical indicators such as trend lines, moving averages, and sentiment analysis also help determine entry and exit points. It is advisable to consult with a financial expert or rely on your own careful analysis before making trading decisions.
EURUSD forecasts for 2025 vary, reflecting the impact of different approaches to forecasting. Some AI models, such as Trading Economics and Long Forecast, expect EURUSD to decline to 1.0800 and below, driven by US dollar strength and global uncertainty. Meanwhile, Panda Forecast and Erste Group predict that the EURUSD pair could rise to the 1.1400-1.2400 levels, supported by sustained recovery of the eurozone economy. The general consensus suggests a sideways movement with possible fluctuations between 1.06 and 1.14 depending on inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth.
To trade EURUSD, open a trading account or use a demo account for practice. Select the EURUSD pair, analyse the market using technical and fundamental indicators, and decide whether to buy or sell based on your outlook. Set stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage risk. Once you open a position, monitor it closely and adjust as necessary based on market movements.
AI-based predictions for EURUSD are popular due to advancements in machine learning. These models analyse historical data and market trends to generate forecasts, offering valuable insights. However, they are not foolproof and should be used alongside other analysis methods, as they may struggle with unpredictable events like geopolitical crises or policy changes.
News significantly impacts the EURUSD exchange rate. Economic reports like GDP, unemployment, and inflation from the eurozone and the US, as well as central bank decisions on interest rates, can cause major price fluctuations. Geopolitical events such as elections or trade deals also affect forecasts. Traders should stay updated on breaking news to adjust strategies.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.