A decisive moment for GBPUSD: inflation and the Bank of England’s verdict

GBP continues to strengthen amid expectations surrounding the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, with GBPUSD trading around the 1.3380 level. Details — in our analysis for 17 December 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• UK Consumer Price Index (CPI): previous value — 3.6%, forecast — 3.5%
• GBPUSD forecast for 17 December 2025: 1.3460 and 1.3350

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD outlook for December 17, 2025, remains favorable for the pound, as the pair has strong potential to continue recovering after completing its correction phase.

The UK Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping assess purchasing trends and the degree of economic stagnation. As a rule, if the indicator comes in above forecasts, it tends to have a positive impact on the USD. Data below expectations may put downward pressure on GBPUSD.

The forecast for December 17, 2025, suggests that November CPI may decline compared to the previous reading of 3.6%. Current expectations stand near 3.5%. The decline is not critical, but this remains only a forecast. A CPI reading above expectations could support GBP and act as a trigger for further growth in GBPUSD.

The GBPUSD pair is also awaiting the Bank of England’s interest rate decision scheduled for December 18, 2025. Forecasts suggest the rate will remain unchanged at 4.0%, which could add confidence among GBP investors.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD tested the upper Bollinger Band and formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. At this stage, the pair may continue its corrective wave as part of the pattern’s completion. Given that prices remain within the boundaries of an ascending channel, the correction may extend toward the support level.

The current downside target for the pullback is the 1.3350 level. A rebound from this area would open the way for renewed strengthening of the bullish trend.

Today’s GBPUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario in which price advances toward 1.3460 without testing the support level.

Summary

Amid expectations surrounding the interest rate decision, the pound continues to strengthen. GBPUSD technical analysis suggests a move toward the 1.3460 level once the current correction is completed.

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