GBP remains unfazed by tariffs, GBPUSD continues to rise

Expectations surrounding the interest rate decision are supporting the pound, with the GBPUSD rate testing the 1.3520 level. Discover more in our analysis for 25 February 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Andrew John Bailey signals a possible interest rate cut in March
• UK services PMI remains above 50
• GBPUSD forecast for 25 February 2026: 1.3650

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD outlook for 25 February 2026 is favourable for the pound, with quotes having strong potential for further growth after a minor correction.

Key triggers influencing the GBPUSD rate today:

• Andrew John Bailey signals a possible interest rate cut in March
• The market has already priced in two rate cuts, so any hint of fewer reductions or later timing would be positive for the pound
• US President Donald Trump continues tariff wars, this time raising tariffs to 15% for all countries
• The British pound reacted paradoxically to the tariff increase by largely ignoring the development
• UK services PMI remains above 50. Inflation expectations are normalising, adding support to the GBP

Today’s GBPUSD forecast takes into account that the pound may continue to strengthen against this backdrop, ignoring the March interest rate decision.

Technical outlook

Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, the GBPUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, the price may continue its upward wave as the signal unfolds, with the upside target at 1.3650. A breakout above the resistance level would open the door for continued upward momentum.

Today’s GBPUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario involving a correction towards 1.3440 before renewed growth.

GBPUSD overview

• Asset: GBPUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward momentum
• Key resistance levels: 1.3650 and 1.3850
• Key support levels: 1.3440 and 1.3340

GBPUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.3650 resistance level would create conditions for opening long positions, with the upside target at 1.3850. The potential profit upon reaching the take-profit level is about 200 pips, while possible losses are limited to 40 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:4.

• Take Profit: 1.3850
• Stop Loss: 1.3610

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

An aggressive decline with a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and consolidation below 1.3440 would signal a drop in the currency pair.

• Take Profit: 1.3320
• Stop Loss: 1.3480

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include consolidation below 1.3440 and a breakout of the lower boundary of the descending channel, which could trigger a deeper downward correction. An additional factor invalidating the bullish scenario would be reduced demand for the pound due to a shift in Bank of England rhetoric or renewed strength in the US dollar.

Summary

The pound continues to strengthen ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Technical analysis of GBPUSD suggests a move towards 1.3650.

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