GBPUSD may edge higher: the situation around Hormuz has become slightly calmer

The GBPUSD pair strengthened to 1.3403. Energy price risks remain high. Discover more in our analysis for 8 April 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The GBPUSD pair looks better, but external risks remain significant
• Sentiment towards the pound is shifting from neutral to bullish
• GBPUSD forecast for 8 April 2026: 1.3415

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate rose to 1.3403 on Wednesday, with the pound sterling thus moving away from its four-month lows against the US dollar. Nevertheless, pressure on the British currency remains due to the country’s high dependence on imported energy and concerns about the state of public finances. Against this backdrop, investors are closely watching the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

However, despite its dependence on imports, the UK’s energy situation appears more resilient than the average across the eurozone. This is partly due to the development of renewable generation.

Yields on UK government bonds have fallen slightly in recent weeks. At the same time, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the market may be overestimating the probability of rate hikes. The regulator is seeking to avoid increasing pressure on the economy.

At the same time, inflation signals remain strong. Companies in the service sector are reporting the fastest growth in costs since 2021 and expect further price increases over the coming year.

The GBPUSD forecast is improving.

Technical outlook

On the GBPUSD H4 chart, after declining in late March, the pair formed a local bottom around 1.3150 and began to recover. The latest upward momentum appears fairly strong, with the price quickly returning to the 1.34 area and approaching the key resistance zone of 1.3415–1.3480, indicating stronger buyer activity after a period of weakness.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rise, signalling a jump in volatility and stronger momentum. The price moved above the middle line of the indicator and approached the channel’s upper boundary – a sign of short-term overbought conditions. At the same time, the very fact of consolidation above the middle of the range confirms a shift in local sentiment from neutral to bullish.

Momentum indicators confirm the rise, but with signs of overheating. MACD has moved into positive territory and continues to rise, but the Stochastic Oscillator is already in the overbought zone and may begin a downward reversal. This increases the likelihood of a short-term correction or a pause before an attempt to break above resistance. Key support levels are located in the 1.3250–1.3300 range, while resistance levels are 1.3415–1.3480.

GBPUSD overview

• Asset: GBPUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.3415 and 1.3480
• Key support levels: 1.3300 and 1.3250

GBPUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.3415 would confirm the continuation of the recovery momentum and stronger buyer positions.

• Take Profit: 1.3480
• Stop Loss: 1.3340

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of the 1.3300 level would indicate profit-taking and a correction after the rise.

• Take Profit: 1.3250
• Stop Loss: 1.3365

Risk factors

Risks to the upside include ongoing geopolitical tensions and demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly in light of Trump’s statements. In addition, the cautious stance of the Bank of England, as mentioned by Bailey, may limit the pound’s potential for strengthening.

Summary

The GBPUSD pair is rising within a correction after touching four-week lows earlier. The GBPUSD forecast for today, 8 April 2026, does not rule out a recovery towards 1.3415.

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