GBPUSD under pressure: what will the Bank of England decide?

The GBPUSD pair is pulling back to 1.3512 midweek, with investors conserving energy ahead of the BoE meeting. Find more details in our analysis for 29 April 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The GBPUSD pair is declining locally, but the main moves are still ahead
• By the end of the year, the Bank of England may revisit the idea of rate cuts
• GBPUSD forecast for 29 April 2026: 1.3450 or 1.3750

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is edging down slightly on Wednesday and moving towards 1.3512, with the pound sterling pressured by a stronger dollar and rising uncertainty around geopolitics and central bank policy.

The Bank of England meeting on Thursday is in focus. The market expects the rate to remain unchanged, but investors will watch the signals closely. They need to understand how the Middle East conflict is affecting the economy and the policy outlook.

Only one member of the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to support a rate hike, while the others will limit themselves to cautious rhetoric about readiness to act. Expectations of rate increases already priced into the market are beginning to restrain economic activity, reducing the likelihood of actual policy tightening. The regulator may revisit the idea of rate cuts by the end of the year.

Geopolitics continues to influence the market. Higher energy prices are increasing inflation expectations and forcing investors to revise rate forecasts. Negotiations between the US and Iran remain deadlocked, while Washington is dissatisfied with Tehran’s latest proposals.

Domestic politics remains an additional pressure factor. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing criticism over the appointment of the ambassador to the US, while the upcoming local elections may put more pressure on his position. This adds to the risks for the pound.

The GBPUSD forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

The GBPUSD H4 chart shows that after a strong upward momentum from below 1.3400, the pair moved into the 1.3500–1.3600 zone, where the move slowed noticeably. Local resistance formed near 1.3590, and the market has rebounded downwards from this level several times. From this point on, the price entered a sideways phase, fluctuating within the range without a clear trend.

Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing range and lower volatility after the previous expansion. The price is moving around the middle line, periodically testing both the upper and lower boundaries. The 1.3450 level is acting as the key support, where demand appeared earlier, while the 1.3570–1.3600 area remains strong resistance, limiting attempts at growth.

Indicators are confirming the consolidation phase. MACD is near the zero line, reflecting a lack of sustained momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator recently turned upwards from the neutral zone, signalling a possible short-term recovery. Overall, the market is balanced and awaiting an external driver to break out of the range.

GBPUSD overview

• Asset: GBPUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways (consolidation after growth)
• Key resistance levels: 1.3570 and 1.3600
• Key support levels: 1.3500 and 1.3450

GBPUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.3570–1.3600 would confirm an attempt to break out of the range upwards amid a stabilising external environment and neutral Bank of England rhetoric. In this case, the pair may move towards 1.3650.

• Take Profit: 1.3650
• Stop Loss: 1.3535

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 1.3500 would intensify pressure amid a stronger dollar, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty around BoE policy. The move may continue towards 1.3450.

• Take Profit: 1.3450
• Stop Loss: 1.3555

Risk factors

Risks to growth include growing geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. An additional factor could be cautious Bank of England rhetoric and expectations of policy easing by the end of the year, which would limit the pound’s potential for strengthening.

Summary

The GBPUSD pair is retreating slightly, but it will conserve energy until the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday. The GBPUSD forecast for today, 29 April 2026, suggests continued movement within the 1.3450-1.3750 range.

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