Storm in the market: the dollar is applying pressure, oil is providing support - who will come out on top in USDCAD

The Canadian dollar is once again trying to regain ground, with quotes testing the 1.3920 level. Find out more in our analysis for 6 April 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

• The US President continues to escalate tensions
• US unemployment fell to 4.3%
• Nonfarm Payrolls added 178 thousand new jobs
• USDCAD forecast for 6 April 2026: 1.4000 or 1.3890

Fundamental analysis

Today’s USDCAD forecast is positive for the CAD. After rising and reaching this year’s new highs, the pair may form a corrective wave. At this stage, quotes are hovering around 1.3920.

The main driver of the pair’s growth is the strength of the US currency, which is winning on two fronts:

• Trump’s geopolitical ultimatum: the US President continues to escalate tensions. He issued Iran with a harsh demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, 7 April; otherwise, he threatened to destroy Iranian power stations and bridges. This ultimatum ruled out even the slightest hope of a quick truce, forcing investors once again to buy the dollar en masse as the main safe haven
• An unexpected hawk from the Fed: Friday’s US labour market report, Nonfarm Payrolls, was a cold shower for those expecting rate cuts. The economy created 178 thousand new jobs, while the forecast was 60 thousand, and unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. These figures effectively destroyed hopes for Federal Reserve policy easing in the near term, triggering a rise in US bond yields and, as a result, the USD

At first glance, with such strong dollar pressure, the Canadian dollar should have plummeted. But that is not happening because the pair is caught in a vice: the strong dollar is pushing it upwards, while expensive oil is pulling it down, creating a unique situation.

The USDCAD pair today is a perfect storm where three forces are colliding: fears of geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the energy crisis. The USD has the upper hand, but oil is supporting the Canadian dollar. The key 1.3950 level will be the line that determines the winner in the coming days. A breakout of this level will confirm a strengthening USD, while a rebound will indicate a strengthening Canadian dollar. Trading now is not so much about chart analysis as it is about reacting to news from the White House and closed-door negotiations between the US and Iran.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, it may form a downward wave following this signal. Since quotes remain within an ascending channel, a fall towards the nearest support level at 1.3890 can be expected. A rebound from this level would open the door for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, the forecast for 6 April 2026 also includes a market scenario in which the price rises to the 1.4000 mark without testing the support level.

USDCAD overview

• Asset: USDCAD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.3900 and 1.4000
• Key support levels: 1.3890 and 1.3700

USDCAD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.3900 would confirm a continued uptrend and open the way to 1.4000. The risk-to-reward ratio is about 1:3 while external pressure on the CAD remains in place.

• Take Profit: 1.4000
• Stop Loss: 1.3830

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.3890 support level would indicate weaker upward momentum and the start of a correction with downside potential towards 1.3700.

• Take Profit: 1.3700
• Stop Loss: 1.3930

Risk factors

Geopolitics and oil prices remain the main influencing factors. Rising energy prices are partly supporting the CAD, but demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and expectations of hawkish Federal Reserve policy are maintaining the strength of the USD.

Summary

Statements from the White House and US employment data are supporting the USD, but expensive oil is partly supporting the Canadian dollar. USDCAD technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 1.3890 support level.

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