USD versus oil: who will win the battle for USDCAD

Attempts by the CAD to regain its positions have failed, while the USD is recovering its losses. The USDCAD rate continues to rise and is trading around 1.3810. More details are in our analysis for 1 June 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

• Geopolitics is supporting the USD
• High oil prices are supporting the CAD
• USDCAD forecast for 1 June 2026: 1.3865

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for the USDCAD price for today, 1 June 2026, shows that the pair formed a correction after testing April levels. On Monday morning, quotes are consolidating around 1.3810.

Geopolitics is supporting the USD, while the failure of the US-Iran negotiations is working in favour of further strengthening. The Federal Reserve may continue tightening monetary policy. Market participants are pricing in an interest rate increase by the end of the year, and this is a trump card for the US currency.

High oil prices are supporting the CAD. Prices rebounded from the lows reached on Friday, and this is helping the Canadian currency hold its ground, because oil is Canada’s main export commodity.

The dollar is receiving support from geopolitics and expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Fed, but expensive oil, which is bringing profit to Canada, is creating a counterweight. Analysts retain cautious optimism towards the USD, but they warn that, without a strong trigger, the pair risks continuing to move within a horizontal channel.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, near the lower Bollinger Band, the USDCAD price formed a Hammer reversal pattern. At this stage, it is continuing the upward wave as part of the signal from the pattern. Since the quotes remain within the boundaries of an upward channel, growth towards the nearest resistance at 1.3865 can be expected. If this level is broken, the market will open the prospect of continuing the upward trend.

At the same time, the forecast for 1 June 2026 also contains a market scenario involving a correction in the USDCAD rate to 1.3775 before growth.

USDCAD overview

• Asset: USDCAD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.3865 and 1.3945
• Key support levels: 1.3775 and 1.3730

USDCAD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A move above 1.3865 and consolidation above it will confirm USD strength and the continuation of the upward trend, which will open the way to 1.3945.

• Take Profit: 1.3945
• Stop Loss: 1.3735

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of support at 1.3775 will become a signal of stronger pressure on the USD and the formation of a downward wave. In this case, the fall in quotes may continue towards 1.3730.

• Take Profit: 1.3730
• Stop Loss: 1.3805

Risk factors

The factors influencing the USDCAD rate remain geopolitics and oil dynamics. Rising energy prices are supporting the CAD, but demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy are preserving the strength of the USD. If Brent resumes its rise, this will support the CAD.

Summary

The CAD remains dependent on geopolitics and the cost of oil. Technical analysis of USDCAD suggests growth in quotes towards 1.3865.

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