USDJPY: the yen waits for factors to strengthen against the USD

A fall in US retail sales and industrial production may drive growth in the USDJPY rate to 154.40. Find more details in our analysis for 14 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• US core retail sales: previously at 0.4%, projected at 0.3%
• US industrial production: previously at 0.9%, projected at 0.3%
• USDJPY forecast for 14 February 2025: 151.90 and 154.40

Fundamental analysis

The US core retail sales index shows the change in retail sales over the previous month excluding autos due to high price volatility. The previous reading was 0.4%; according to the forecast for 14 February 2025, the index is projected to decline to 0.3%. A decrease in the indicator shows lower consumer spending and the US economic slowdown.

US industrial production shows the total output of companies, including the gas and energy sectors. Fundamental analysis for 14 February 2025 takes into account that the indicator could decrease to 0.3%. The US industrial downturn may negatively impact the USD and increase volatility in the USDJPY rate. Changes in industrial production may also affect GDP in the current period.

USDJPY technical analysis

Having tested the middle Bollinger band, the USDJPY price has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, it could form an ascending wave following the pattern signal. Since the quotes have rebounded from the support level and continue to move within an ascending channel, they are expected to climb to the resistance level.

The upside target is the 154.40 level. A breakout above this level could open the door for a more substantial upward movement.

However, the USDJPY forecast for today also considers another scenario, where the price falls to 151.90 without testing the resistance level.

Summary

Along with the USDJPY technical analysis for 14 February 2025, the decline in US fundamentals suggests growth to 154.40.