The market holds its breath: one report can change the fate of USDJPY

Positive US fundamental data may trigger a rally in USDJPY towards 157.50. Discover more in our analysis for 3 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s services PMI in Japan: previously at 53.1, currently at 53.2
• US services PMI: previously at 54.8, currently at 55.0
• ADP US nonfarm employment change: previously at 42 thousand, currently at 7 thousand
• USDJPY forecast for 3 December 2025: 154.85 and 157.50

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 3 December 2025 considers that the USDJPY pair continues its correction, trading near 155.80.

Japan’s services PMI covers multiple industries, including transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, information technologies, hospitality, and food services.

The USDJPY forecast for today appears moderately optimistic for the Japanese yen, with the PMI up to 53.2 from 53.1 previously. At the moment, the PMI is above the 50.0 threshold, which may add support to the yen.

The US services PMI is also expected to rise to 55.0 from the previous 54.8. In this case, the increase in momentum may be slightly stronger, but it is still only a forecast. The actual figure may differ significantly, adding either support or pressure to the USD.

According to the forecast for 3 December 2025, ADP nonfarm employment change in the US may fall to 7 thousand, but this is only a projection. Last month, the number of employed grew more strongly than expected. The USDJPY forecast for today takes into account that a stronger-than-expected reading could support the US dollar and push the USDJPY rate higher towards 157.50.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and is currently trading around 155.80. At this stage, it may continue an upward wave following the pattern’s signal, with a potential upside target at 157.50.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the price corrects towards 154.85 before rising.

Summary

Stronger US economic indicators may support the USD. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests a rise towards 157.50 after a correction.

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