USDJPY under pressure: the yen reflects multiple factors

USDJPY is trading near 155.73. Investors are closely monitoring monetary signals. Details — in our analysis for 12 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: USDJPY is absorbing the full range of market signals
• Current trend: The yen is benefiting from US dollar weakness following the Fed’s decisions
• USDJPY forecast for 12 December 2025: 155.00

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY is holding near the 155.73 level on Friday. The yen is supported by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as next week and continue tightening monetary policy into 2026.

Earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the regulator is approaching its inflation target, opening the door to a potential rate hike in the near term. Markets will closely monitor his comments after the meeting for signals regarding the policy path for next year.

According to media reports, key members of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet do not intend to oppose policy tightening. One of the main arguments is the prolonged weakness of the yen caused by the Bank of Japan’s extended accommodative stance, which has intensified imported inflation and rising costs.

An additional factor supporting the yen has been the overall weakness of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and delivered less hawkish signals than the market had expected.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USDJPY maintains a sideways structure following a sharp decline from the November highs. The price is trading in the 155.70–156.00 area, holding near the middle Bollinger Band, which indicates a balance between buyers and sellers. Volatility has decreased compared to the beginning of the month, and the Bollinger Bands have narrowed, reflecting a consolidation phase.

On the upside, key resistance is located in the 157.20–157.90 zone, where the previous rally was halted and a reversal formed. A return and sustained move above 157.20 would signal a recovery of the upward trend, with potential upside toward 158.00.

The nearest support lies in the 155.00–154.80 area. A loss of this zone would increase downside pressure and open the way toward a test of 154.30, which marks the lower boundary of the current range.

Overall, the structure remains neutral-to-bearish: the market failed to hold above the upper Bollinger Band, and the recent recovery still appears corrective. A breakout from the 154.30–157.20 range is required to form a new directional move in USDJPY.

Summary

USDJPY is attempting to recover after the recent decline, but market sentiment remains mixed. The USDJPY forecast for today, December 12, 2025, does not rule out a return toward the 155.00 level.

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