USDJPY loses ground amid US dollar weakness

The USDJPY pair is correcting after a sharp decline amid the strengthening of the Japanese yen, driven by fundamental factors. The rate currently stands at 152.65. Find out more in our analysis for 28 January 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The market has strengthened expectations of a possible joint currency intervention by Tokyo and Washington
• The minutes of the December BoJ meeting showed that board members are ready to continue raising interest rates
• US President Donald Trump said he is not concerned about the recent weakening of the US dollar
• USDJPY forecast for 28 January 2026: 151.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has moved into a correction phase after an aggressive decline that lasted three consecutive trading sessions. The Japanese yen received strong support amid growing speculation about a possible coordinated currency intervention by Tokyo and Washington.

Additional positive support came from the minutes of the December Bank of Japan meeting, which showed that board members are ready to continue raising interest rates if current economic and price trends persist.

In December, the BoJ raised its key rate to the highest level in 30 years, then kept monetary policy parameters unchanged and revised its inflation forecasts upwards in January. The Japanese currency was also supported by overall US dollar weakness following statements by US President Donald Trump, who said he was not concerned about the recent decline in the USD and emphasised that the drop was not excessive.

Technical outlook

USDJPY quotes are undergoing a moderate correction within a formed descending channel. Sellers are confidently holding the price below the EMA-65, indicating lingering medium-term bearish pressure.

The USDJPY forecast for today suggests a continued decline towards 151.05 after a rebound from the 153.25 resistance level. The Stochastic Oscillator further confirms the bearish scenario, as the signal lines have turned down from the descending resistance line and formed a bearish crossover, increasing selling pressure at the current stage.

Another factor supporting further downside is a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel. The key condition for continued decline remains a consolidation below 152.45, which would signal a breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel and increase the likelihood of reaching the target level.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: M15 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 153.25 and 154.45
• Key support levels: 151.95 and 151.05

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below 152.45 will confirm a breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective structure and create conditions for opening short positions. This scenario will open the way towards the target level of 151.05. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit upon reaching the target is 140 pips, while possible losses are limited to 45 pips.

• Take Profit: 151.05
• Stop Loss: 152.90

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

The bearish scenario will be cancelled if the price breaks above the 153.65 resistance level and consolidates above the channel’s upper boundary. This scenario would indicate a transition to a deeper corrective recovery.

• Take Profit: 154.45
• Stop Loss: 153.05

Risk factors

Risks to the bearish USDJPY scenario are associated with a possible recovery of the US dollar in case expectations of a more hawkish Fed policy strengthen. An additional factor could be a reduction in intervention rhetoric and a more cautious stance by the BoJ, which would weaken support for the Japanese yen.

Summary

The current USDJPY correction reflects a combination of strengthening fundamental support for the Japanese yen and weakening of the US dollar, which maintains risks of further downside in the short term. USDJPY technical analysis indicates a high probability of the downtrend continuing towards the 151.05 level if the price consolidates below 152.45.

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