Bank of Japan intervention is no joke: USDJPY continues to decline

Positive fundamental data from Japan continues to support the yen, with USDJPY quotes trading around the 154.70 level. Discover more in our analysis for 2 February 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• Japan’s manufacturing PMI: projected at 50.0, currently at 51.5
• The market is pricing in a possible BoJ intervention
• USDJPY forecast for 2 February 2026: 153.00

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 2 February 2026 appears optimistic for the JPY. The USDJPY pair is forming a corrective wave and may continue to decline, with quotes currently trading around the 154.70 level.

Key triggers influencing the USDJPY rate:

• The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) assesses activity among purchasing managers in the industrial sector. The index reflects the condition of the manufacturing sector and production dynamics in the country. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while values below this level signal contraction. The actual PMI figure exceeded expectations and rose to 51.5 compared to the previous period, having a positive impact on the JPY
• Amid rumours of a BoJ intervention, the yen continues to strengthen against the USD
• Weak US economic data continues to weigh on the USD
• Escalation of global conflicts, trade tensions, and stress in the banking sector increase demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and is trading around 154.80. At this stage, the pair may continue its downward movement as the pattern plays out, with the downside target at 153.00.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario in which quotes rise towards 156.00 without testing the support level.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 156.00 and 157.60
• Key support levels: 153.00 and 151.50

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 154.40 level will confirm a resumption of the bearish momentum and create conditions for a decline towards the 151.50 area. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:5, with the move developing amid seller dominance and elevated volatility.

• Sell Stop: 154.30
• Take Profit: 151.50
• Stop Loss: 154.80

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

The bearish scenario will be invalidated if the price breaks and consolidates above the 156.00–156.50 resistance zone. In this case, downside pressure will weaken, and upward movement may evolve into a deeper corrective rebound after the January decline.

• Buy Stop: 156.50
• Take Profit: 158.50
• Stop Loss: 156.00

Risk factors

A decline in USDJPY may be limited if the US dollar recovers amid tighter Fed policy expectations. An additional risk factor would be a softening of rhetoric about currency intervention and a more restrained stance from the Bank of Japan, which would reduce support for the yen.

Summary

The yen continues to strengthen amid rumours of intervention. USDJPY technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 153.00 level.

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