USDJPY on the rise: how employment and PMI data could accelerate dollar growth

Ahead of US macroeconomic data releases, the USD continues to strengthen against the yen, with the USDJPY pair testing the 157.60 level. Discover more in our analysis for 4 March 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 22 thousand, projected at 50 thousand
• US services PMI: previously at 52.3, currently at 52.3
• USDJPY forecast for 4 March 2026: 159.35

Fundamental analysis

The outlook for 4 March 2026 remains optimistic for the USD. After a correction, the USDJPY pair is forming an upward wave and may continue its growth, currently trading around 157.60.

The ADP nonfarm employment change report reflects changes in the number of jobs in the US nonfarm private sector and is based on data from around 400 thousand businesses. It is released two days before the official government employment report. The current forecast stands at 50 thousand, compared to the previous reading of 22 thousand. If expectations match the actual data, the market may see increased volatility. However, weaker-than-expected figures would likely weaken the USD against the yen.

Today’s USDJPY forecast also takes into account the US services PMI, which is expected to remain unchanged at 52.3. If the actual PMI reading exceeds expectations, it would provide additional support for the US dollar.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is trading around 157.60. At this stage, the price may continue its upward movement as the pattern plays out, with an upside target at 159.35.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, in which quotes correct towards 156.70 without testing the support level.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 159.35 and 161.70
• Key support levels: 156.70 and 155.40

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 159.35 will confirm continued upward momentum and open the way towards 161.70. The potential move is about 235 pips with a risk of approximately 35 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:6.

• Take Profit: 161.70
• Stop Loss: 159.00

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 156.70 would increase corrective pressure after testing the highs and create conditions for a decline towards the 155.40 support level.

• Take Profit: 155.40
• Stop Loss: 157.20

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include hawkish commentary from the Bank of Japan or currency interventions by authorities. Energy price dynamics and Fed rate expectations will also influence the pair: a weaker dollar could trigger a decline in the USDJPY rate.

Summary

Ahead of US employment data, the yen continues to lose ground against the USD, with USDJPY technical analysis suggesting a potential rise towards 159.35.

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