USDJPY in positive territory: everyone wants to hedge against risks

The USDJPY pair has risen and is hovering above 158.00, with geopolitics and uncertainty supporting demand for the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for 11 March 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair rose in response to elevated geopolitical risk
• Japanese data is relatively weak, weighing on the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 11 March 2026: 158.90

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday, the USDJPY pair climbed above 158.00, with the yen remaining under pressure amid a strengthening US dollar, which is supported by heightened uncertainty around the Middle East conflict.

The US administration is sending mixed signals regarding the situation around Iran. US President Donald Trump said the conflict could end soon. At the same time, several high-ranking officials point to an intensification of military operations and a low probability of a diplomatic settlement at this stage.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rejected claims that the conflict will end soon and warned that the blockade will remain in place until attacks by the US and Israel stop.

An additional factor for the market was a decline in oil prices. The IEA is discussing the largest release of oil from strategic reserves in its history to stabilise the market.

Japan remains vulnerable to oil price fluctuations due to its heavy dependence on energy imports. The country’s authorities said they are ready to use their own strategic reserves if supplies are threatened.

Macroeconomic data also came in moderately weak. According to published figures, Japan’s Producer Price Index rose 2% y/y in February, marking the slowest pace in almost two years.

The USDJPY outlook is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair maintains its upward momentum that has been building since mid-February. The pair has consistently reached new local highs, rising from the 153–154 area to current levels above 158. At the same time, the price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating sustained upward momentum.

After the sharp rise in early March, momentum has slowed somewhat. In recent sessions, the market has been trading near the upper boundary of the range, consolidating around 158.0–158.3. Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow slightly, which may indicate a pause after a strong momentum.

The nearest resistance level is around 158.90, where a local high formed earlier. Support lies in the 157.70–157.80 zone, with a stronger level near 156.40, where the prior consolidation area was located. As long as the price holds above these levels, the overall uptrend remains intact.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 158.90 and 159.80
• Key support levels: 157.70 and 156.40

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 158.90 would confirm the continued upward momentum that has been forming since mid-February. The pair is consistently reaching new local highs and remains above the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting sustained demand for the US dollar. The move’s potential is around 90–100 pips with a risk of about 40–45 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is about 1:2.

• Take Profit: 159.80
• Stop Loss: 158.45

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 157.70 could signal a short-term correction after the strong rise in early March. In this case, the market may test a deeper support level near the previous consolidation zone.

• Take Profit: 156.40
• Stop Loss: 158.25

Risk factors

The USDJPY pair retains an upward bias amid rising geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Another factor weighing on the yen is weak Japanese macroeconomic data. If external risks persist and the dollar remains strong, the pair may continue its movement towards new local highs.

Summary

The USDJPY pair continues to rise as investors have a strong need for safe-haven assets. The USDJPY forecast for today, 11 March 2026, suggests a move higher towards 158.90.

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