USDJPY surges higher amid yen weakness

The yen continues to lose ground ahead of US jobless data, with the USDJPY rate currently at 159.00. Discover more in our analysis for 12 March 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 213 thousand, projected at 214 thousand
• US continuing jobless claims: previously at 1.868 million, projected at 1.850 million
• USDJPY forecast for 12 March 2026: 160.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY forecast for 12 March 2026 appears optimistic for the US dollar. After a pullback, the pair is forming an upward wave and may continue to rise, with quotes currently trading around 159.00.

US initial jobless claims show how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator gauges labour market conditions: an increase typically signals rising unemployment.

The previous reading was 213 thousand, and the forecast for 12 March 2026 appears less optimistic, suggesting an increase to 214 thousand. The expected growth is insignificant, but the actual figure can differ materially from the forecast, and any surprise may noticeably affect the USDJPY rate. If claims fall, it would provide additional support for the US dollar.

US continuing jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed for benefits again. Today’s USDJPY outlook takes into account that this figure may decline to 1.850 million. The projected drop could act as a trigger for a temporary USD uptick, but it is only a forecast. Since claims increased during February 2026, the actual number for the current period could come in worse than expected.

Since February 2026, the yen has been under persistent pressure from the US dollar despite periodic attempts to strengthen. In the near term, the USDJPY pair could reach a new all-time high.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY rate has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is currently trading around 159.00. At this stage, the price may continue its upward movement as the pattern plays out, with the upside target at 160.00.

At the same time, today’s USDJPY forecast also includes an alternative scenario in which the price undergoes a correction towards 158.50 without testing the support level.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 159.00 and 160.00
• Key support levels: 158.50 and 157.50

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 159.00 would confirm continued bullish momentum that has been forming since mid-February. The pair has been consistently hitting local highs, indicating ongoing demand for the US dollar. The move potential is about 100 pips with a risk of around 30 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is around 1:3.

• Take Profit: 160.00
• Stop Loss: 158.70

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 158.50 may signal a short-term correction after the strong rally in early March. In this case, the market could test a deeper support level near the prior consolidation area.

• Take Profit: 157.50
• Stop Loss: 158.80

Risk factors

The USDJPY pair maintains its upward momentum amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Another factor pressuring the yen is relatively weak macroeconomic data from Japan. If external risks persist and the dollar remains strong, the pair may continue its movement towards new local highs.

Summary

The US dollar continues to strengthen against the yen, with the pair regularly reaching new highs. USDJPY technical analysis suggests further gains towards 160.00.

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