USDJPY maintains bullish momentum and prepares to test key resistance

The USDJPY pair continues to rise, reflecting strengthening US dollar positions amid persistent inflation expectations. The rate currently stands at 159.53. Find out more in our analysis for 23 March 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• High oil prices are boosting inflation expectations in the US
• The market is reducing expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut
• Some participants are pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by the end of the year
• USDJPY forecast for 23 March 2026: 160.65

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has strengthened for the second consecutive session. Buyers are keeping control after defending the key support level at 157.55 at the end of last week. This level became the starting point for a new upside impulse, with the market now aiming to test the 159.75 resistance level.

Pressure on the yen increased after the Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy rate unchanged. At the same time, the central bank signalled readiness to tighten policy in response to inflation risks driven by higher oil prices. Views within the BoJ remain divided. Board member Hajime Takata called for more decisive action, proposing a 25-basis-point hike at the second consecutive meeting. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed that a rate hike remains a possible scenario if the economic downturn linked to geopolitical tensions around Iran proves temporary.

On the US side, the dollar is receiving additional support. High oil prices are lifting inflation expectations, reducing the likelihood of near-term Fed easing. Moreover, some market participants are beginning to price in the possibility of a rate hike by the end of the year, which could keep the USDJPY outlook bullish.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY pair continues to climb and is approaching the key resistance level at 159.75. Moving averages have formed a bullish crossover, increasing the likelihood that the upside momentum will resume. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests continued growth towards 160.65, potentially after a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel.

The technical picture remains bullish. The Stochastic Oscillator is holding in overbought territory, reflecting strong buying pressure. At the same time, a short-term pullback could help relieve the indicator and create conditions for a new move higher. An additional signal supporting continued upward movement would be a decisive breakout above 159.75.

An alternative scenario suggests a drop below 158.75. In this case, buying pressure would weaken, highlighting the importance of current resistance and potentially triggering a deeper correction.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: uptrend
• Key resistance levels: 159.74 and 160.55
• Key support levels: 159.05 and 158.65

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A sustained move above 159.90 would confirm continued bullish momentum and create conditions for opening long positions. The potential profit at the take-profit level is 75 pips, while potential losses are limited to 20 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is above 1:3.

• Take Profit: 160.65
• Stop Loss: 159.70

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 158.75 support level would return the price within the descending channel and signal the formation of another corrective wave.

• Take Profit: 157.60
• Stop Loss: 159.05

Risk factors

A short-term correction amid overbought conditions on the Stochastic Oscillator could pose a risk to USDJPY’s upside today, pushing the price lower and cooling off indicators. Another negative factor would be a drop below 158.75, which would reduce buying pressure and reinforce the importance of the 159.75 resistance level.

Summary

Fundamental factors continue to favour the US dollar, supporting a base-case USDJPY rise with a test of 159.75 and further upside potential if the current macroeconomic backdrop persists. USDJPY technical analysis confirms bullish momentum and indicates a possible move towards 160.65.

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