USDJPY returns to positive territory as market worries about inflation data

The USDJPY pair has returned to 158.85, with the market watching consumer prices and concerns about their deterioration. Discover more in our analysis for 24 March 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair is recovering after an earlier decline, and the overall uptrend remains strong
• The yen is under pressure, as there is no prospect of a Bank of Japan rate hike
• USDJPY forecast for 24 March 2026: 160.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising to 158.85 on Tuesday, partially offsetting the previous session’s decline. Pressure on the yen increased amid a recovery in oil prices, which negatively affects Japan’s economy as a major energy importer.

The move came after Iran denied reports of negotiations to end the conflict, thereby refuting Donald Trump’s statements. The previous day, the yen gained about 0.5% after Trump postponed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing productive negotiations.

Domestic data showed that core inflation in Japan rose 1.6% in February, marking the slowest pace since March 2022. The slowdown is linked to government measures aimed at reducing the cost of living, but rising energy prices amid the conflict may increase inflationary pressure in the coming months.

Weak inflation data does not provide grounds for a change in policy by the Bank of Japan, which left the rate unchanged last week.

The USDJPY forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair maintains its overall upward momentum built since early March. The price is consistently forming higher highs and higher lows, while holding mainly in the upper part of the range. The move is developing along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating stable demand and continued bullish momentum.

In the middle of the period, the pair entered a consolidation phase in the approximate range of 158.80–159.80. Attempts to break upwards to 160.00 were accompanied by pullbacks, indicating strong resistance at the psychological level. However, any decline is likely to be bought up around the 157.50–158.00 area, where the support zone and the middle Bollinger Band are located.

In the latest sessions, the price has moved into a more volatile phase with sharp moves in both directions, but the structure remains neutral to bullish for now. The current performance indicates the formation of a sideways range below the 160.00 resistance level. A confident breakout above this mark may open the way for further growth, while a consolidation below 157.50 will increase the risks of a deeper correction.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 159.80 and 160.00
• Key support levels: 158.00 and 157.50

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 159.90 would confirm an attempt to break above a key resistance level and resume upward momentum within the current trend. The upside potential remains in place while the price holds in the upper part of the range.

• Take Profit: 160.80
• Stop Loss: 159.20

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 158.00 support level would indicate weakening bullish momentum and a corrective move within the range.

• Take Profit: 157.20
• Stop Loss: 158.80

Risk factors

Risks to the upside are linked to a failure to consolidate above 160.00, which may increase selling pressure. An additional factor would be a decline in oil prices or a weakening dollar, which would support the yen and activate a correction.

Summary

The USDJPY pair has returned to positive territory after declining the previous day. The USDJPY forecast for today, 24 March 2026, does not rule out renewed growth towards 160.00.

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