USDJPY ignores BoJ signals and continues to rise

The USDJPY rate continues its confident upward movement, supported by geopolitical tension and steady demand for the US dollar. The rate currently stands at 159.41. Discover more in our analysis for 26 March 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• Signals about negotiations between the US and Iran initially pushed oil lower, but the effect proved short-lived
• The BoJ left the interest rate unchanged, but continues its course of gradual policy tightening
• Traders are not pricing in rapid changes in BoJ policy
• USDJPY forecast for 26 March 2026: 160.25

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has been strengthening for the third consecutive trading session, while buyers have come close to the key 159.70 resistance level. Demand for the US dollar is increasing amid growing uncertainty around diplomatic initiatives to resolve the conflict in the Middle East.

Signals of possible talks between Washington and Tehran had previously pressured oil prices, but investor optimism proved short-lived, and oil is rising again. Contradictory statements from both sides have increased tensions again and brought geopolitical risks back into the market’s focus, supporting the US currency.

The Bank of Japan’s stance is putting additional pressure on the yen. The regulator held the interest rate steady last week, but continues to follow a course of gradual monetary tightening. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda admitted the possibility of a rate hike as early as April, but the market is still in no rush to price this scenario into quotes.

Technical outlook

USDJPY quotes have consolidated above the upper boundary of the previously formed descending channel, indicating a shift in the short-term trend towards growth. Buyers are confidently holding the price above the EMA-65, confirming stronger bullish pressure. The USDJPY forecast for today suggests an upward move with a target at 160.25 after the price retests the broken channel boundary, which is now acting as support.

The technical picture remains bullish. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved out of oversold territory and is approaching the upward support line, from which upward rebounds have been previously observed. This signals continued potential for further growth. An additional confirmation would be a breakout above the 159.65 resistance level, opening the way for a new bullish momentum.

An alternative scenario suggests a decline if the lower boundary of the ascending channel breaks and the price consolidates below 159.05. In this case, selling pressure will increase, potentially leading to a deeper bearish correction.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: M15 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 159.65 and 160.25
• Key support levels: 159.25 and 158.50

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 159.65 would confirm renewed upward momentum and create conditions for opening long positions. The potential profit upon reaching the take-profit target is around 60 pips, while possible losses are limited to 30 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:2.

• Take Profit: 160.25
• Stop Loss: 159.35

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of the support level and consolidation below 158.95 would signal a breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and a renewed downward correction.

• Take Profit: 158.05
• Stop Loss: 159.45

Risk factors

Risks to USDJPY growth include a possible easing of geopolitical tensions and an active phase of negotiations between the US and Iran, which may weaken demand for the US dollar and trigger a correction in the pair. An additional downside factor will be tougher rhetoric from the Bank of Japan or unexpected signals from Kazuo Ueda, which may strengthen the yen and lead to a breakout below the 159.05 support level.

Summary

The combination of geopolitical risks, steady demand for the US dollar, and the yen’s continuing fundamental weakness is creating conditions for further USDJPY growth, with the price likely to test and attempt to break above the 159.70 level. USDJPY technical analysis confirms the prevailing bullish scenario and indicates the potential for a continued upward movement towards 160.25.

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