USDJPY on the verge of another surge, Nonfarm Payrolls will decide everything

The USDJPY forecast for today appears optimistic for the yen, with the Nonfarm Payrolls release expected to indicate the direction of movement. The rate currently stands at 156.80. Find more details in our analysis for 8 May 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 178 thousand, projected at 65 thousand
• Middle East tensions support the USD
• USDJPY forecast for 8 May 2026: 156.00 and 158.00

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 8 May 2026 shows that the pair is once again attempting to recover from the consequences of the intervention. On Friday morning, quotes are consolidating around 156.80.

Today, the USDJPY pair is awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

According to the forecast for 8 May 2026, the indicator could fall to 65 thousand, down from the previous reading of 178 thousand. If the actual data matches the forecast, this could put additional pressure on the USD. A stronger-than-expected reading would support the USD, pushing the USDJPY rate higher. The Nonfarm Payrolls release will show whether the Federal Reserve will be able to keep the interest rate at the current level or whether the market will force it to revise its hawkish plans.

The USDJPY pair is influenced by two factors: the first is massive support for the yen through intervention (32 billion USD) and threats of further government intervention. The second is a stronger dollar due to tensions in the Middle East and the market’s readiness for movement. The NFP report will trigger a move: weak figures will hit the dollar, while strong figures will hit the yen.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band and is trading around 156.80. Since the price remains within an ascending channel, it could form a downward wave following the pattern signal, with the target for the correction in this case being 156.00.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also takes into account another market scenario, in which the USDJPY rate may continue the upward wave and test the 158.00 resistance level.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 158.00 and 160.00
• Key support levels: 156.00 and 155.05

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 158.00 resistance level would indicate the return of buyers and signal growth towards the psychological 160.00 level.

• Take Profit: 160.00
• Stop Loss: 157.70

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 156.00 support level would indicate a continued downward wave and further strengthening of the yen.

• Take Profit: 156.05
• Stop Loss: 156.30

Risk factors

Risks to USDJPY growth will increase if the Japanese government takes action to strengthen the yen through another round of intervention. A stabilisation of the Middle East conflict and a weakening USD would also signal a decline in the USDJPY rate.

Summary

The yen is awaiting the release of US employment data, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. USDJPY technical analysis suggests a correction towards 156.00 before growth.

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