USDJPY at a four-week high: things are very tense

The USDJPY pair climbed to 159.61. The market is nervous and does not rule out interventions. Find out more in our analysis for 28 May 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair is again soaring towards 160.00, and the market does not rule out fresh interventions
• Bullish positions are strong, and the uptrend remains intact
• USDJPY forecast for 28 May 2026: 160.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 159.61 on Thursday, a roughly four-week high and very close to the key 160.00 level, which has previously triggered currency interventions by the Japanese authorities.

Investors are now awaiting the release of official data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which is due on Friday. The market expects confirmation of possible state intervention to stabilise the yen exchange rate. The authorities may have spent up to 10 trillion JPY to support the currency.

On the monetary policy side, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned about rising inflation risks caused by high oil prices. However, he did not provide clear signals about a possible rate hike at the next BoJ meeting.

At the same time, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reiterated the regulator’s readiness for further rate increases. However, the timing and pace of policy tightening will depend on how the conflict in the Middle East affects the Japanese economy and inflation.

The USDJPY forecast is favourable.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair maintains its steady upward momentum after recovering from the May lows in the 155.00–156.00 area. Buyers gradually seized the initiative and returned the quotes to the 159.50–159.60 area, where important resistance is now located. Recent sessions have shown a series of higher lows, confirming that bulls remain in control.

The price is currently holding near the upper Bollinger Band, while volatility remains elevated. The market has almost reached the psychologically important 160.00 zone, where the risks of currency interventions by the Japanese authorities rise sharply. The nearest support is located around 158.80–159.10, while the key medium-term support level remains at 157.30.

The technical picture remains moderately positive. MACD is holding above the zero line and indicates continued upward momentum, although the pace of growth is gradually slowing. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning downwards from overbought territory, signalling the risk of a local correction after the strong upward move. As long as the USDJPY pair holds above 158.80–157.30, the overall uptrend remains intact.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 160.00 and 162.00
• Key support levels: 158.80 and 157.30

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 160.00 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and open the way towards 162.00.

• Take Profit: 162.00
• Stop Loss: 159.40

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 158.80 support level would increase pressure on the USDJPY rate and indicate a correction after the strong growth of recent weeks.

• Take Profit: 157.30
• Stop Loss: 159.30

Risk factors

The main risks to the USDJPY upside scenario remain possible currency interventions by the Japanese authorities near the 160.00 level. Additional pressure on the pair may come from stronger expectations of a BoJ rate hike or a deterioration in global risk appetite amid the situation in the Middle East.

Summary

The USDJPY pair appears strong and is clearly targeting the area of previous extremes. The USDJPY forecast for today, 28 May 2026, suggests a move to 160.00.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.