USDJPY: once again on the verge of intervention

The USDJPY pair rose to 159.71. The market is monitoring the rhetoric, while the authorities are ready to act. Discover more in our analysis for 2 June 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair continues its steady ascent and is moving ever closer to 160.00
• The likelihood of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at the next meeting stands at 78%
• USDJPY forecast for 2 June 2026: 160.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 159.71 on Tuesday, approaching the 160.00 level which previously triggered currency interventions by the Japanese authorities. This level is once again attracting heightened market attention.

Against this backdrop, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the authorities are ready to take appropriate measures in the currency market if necessary. She also noted increased volatility in the oil market and other financial markets.

According to Katayama, Japanese officials continue to maintain close contact with their American counterparts regarding developments in the currency market and the yen exchange rate.

Previously published data showed that Japanese authorities spent approximately 11.7 trillion JPY to support the national currency in late April, confirming market speculation about large-scale intervention in trading.

At the same time, investors are revising their expectations for Bank of Japan monetary policy, with the market currently estimating the likelihood of a rate hike at the next meeting at around 78%. Inflation risks linked to the situation in the Middle East and high energy prices continue to support this scenario.

The USDJPY forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair continues its confident upward movement and has once again approached key resistance in the 159.75–160.00 area. After recovering from May lows around 156.70, the pair rose more than 300 points with virtually no deep corrections. The quotes are now trading at the upper Bollinger Band, confirming continued strong bullish momentum while also indicating the risk of short-term overbought conditions.

The technical picture remains positive for buyers. The price is holding above the middle Bollinger Band, and the series of higher lows and higher highs continues. The nearest resistance level is located at 159.75–160.00, where the risk of currency interventions by the Japanese authorities has previously increased. Support runs through the 159.00–159.10 area, while a stronger demand zone is located around 158.65–158.80.

The indicators are not yet signalling a full-blown reversal. MACD remains in positive territory, although the histogram indicates a slight slowdown in growth. The Stochastic Oscillator is again rising towards overbought territory, indicating continued buyer momentum but also warning of a possible correction after testing the 160.00 level. As long as the USDJPY pair holds above 159.00, the baseline scenario remains another attempt to storm the 160.00 level. The main risk for buyers remains possible verbal or actual interventions by the Japanese authorities.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 160.00 and 160.50
• Key support levels: 159.00 and 158.65

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 160.00 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and open the way to further growth.

• Take Profit: 160.50
• Stop Loss: 159.65

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 159.00 support level would indicate a correction after the prolonged rise and increase pressure on the pair.

• Take Profit: 158.65
• Stop Loss: 159.35

Risk factors

The main risk to the USDJPY upside scenario remains possible verbal or actual currency interventions by the Japanese authorities near the 160.00 level. Additional pressure on the pair may come from stronger expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, the probability of which the market currently estimates at around 78%.

Summary

The USDJPY pair is gradually moving higher. The USDJPY forecast for today, 2 June 2026, suggests another attack on 160.00.

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