USDJPY trades sideways: the yen could begin an upward correction

The yen's strengthening has stalled, with USDJPY trading in a local sideways trend. The USDJPY rate currently stands at 154.45. Discover more in our analysis for 15 September 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• US inflation came in at 3.4% year-on-year, in line with the forecast
• A Reuters poll from 11 September shows that 85% of economists expect the rate to remain unchanged
• The market is awaiting the US Federal Reserve's decision on the policy rate this Wednesday
• USDJPY forecast for 15 September 2026: 156.25

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY fundamental analysis for 15 September 2026 takes into account that the main support for the US dollar currently comes from sharply changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. Following strong August inflation data, the probability of a rate hike at the 15–16 September meeting approached 90%. At the same time, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2023. High yields on US assets maintain the dollar’s appeal and remain a key driver of USDJPY growth.

The USDJPY’s upside potential is limited by the Bank of Japan. Its meeting will take place on 17–18 September, and the baseline scenario suggests a 25-basis-point rate hike from 1.00% to 1.25%. Reuters also indicates that the market expects further rate hikes to 1.50–1.75% over the coming quarters. In addition, short yen positions have begun to decline in recent weeks, alongside a partial unwinding of carry trades. Speculative positioning in the yen has turned net positive for the first time since February. Therefore, even if the Federal Reserve raises rates, a strong signal from the Bank of Japan about further policy tightening could quickly restore downward pressure on the USDJPY rate.

The geopolitical backdrop is providing additional support for the US dollar. Brent has risen again to around 108 USD per barrel amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and threats to energy infrastructure. Higher oil prices increase inflation risks in the US and raise the likelihood of further Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time, worsening sentiment in global markets has boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Technical outlook

On the daily USDJPY chart, the price remains below the previously broken 155.15 support level, while a new stable support zone has yet to form. The nearest resistance level lies at 156.75. On the four-hour timeframe, support is located at 152.85, while resistance has formed at 154.40. Despite the ongoing sideways movement, an upward correction remains likely. If the pair recovers, the first target for buyers could be 156.25.

An alternative scenario suggests a further decline in the USDJPY rate. If the price consolidates firmly below the 152.85 support level, selling pressure could intensify, opening the way towards the next target near 151.55.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 154.75 and 156.75
• Key support levels: 153.10 and 152.95

USDJPY trading scenario for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

Consolidation above the 154.40 resistance level would confirm the start of a correction and open the door for further USDJPY gains.

• Current price: 155.01
• Entry level: 154.85
• Stop loss: 154.35
• Take profit: 156.25
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:2.8

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks to the USDJPY forecast are related to decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, as well as movements in US bond yields and the geopolitical situation. If the Fed raises rates while simultaneously signalling a more hawkish stance on further policy tightening, the US dollar could strengthen more than expected, with the USDJPY pair possibly rising above 155.8–156.6. The opposite risk would arise if the Fed adopts a more dovish tone or US Treasury yields decline. The Bank of Japan remains an additional factor: an unexpectedly hawkish decision, a faster pace of rate hikes, or a signal of further stimulus reduction could sharply strengthen the yen.

Summary

The outlook for the USDJPY pair remains moderately bearish. Expectations of further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan, together with a gradual narrowing of the yield gap between Japanese and US bonds, continue to support the yen. At the same time, the US dollar's strong position and persistently high Treasury yields limit the potential for a more pronounced decline in the pair. Under the baseline scenario, the USDJPY rate could continue to edge lower if the Bank of Japan maintains its hawkish rhetoric, although the probability of an upward correction remains high in the short term. USDJPY technical analysis suggests a correction towards 156.25.

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