USDJPY continues to rise despite the BoJ as market braces for another blow to the yen

The likelihood of another intervention by the Japanese authorities is gradually increasing. The current price is 157.60. Find out more in our analysis for 22 September 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike rose to 56%
• The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 1.25%
• The authorities' readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen weakens excessively is gradually increasing
• USDJPY forecast for 22 September 2026: 158.50

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 22 September 2026 shows that the market situation for USDJPY has shifted noticeably against the yen. After a correction, USDJPY is forming an upward wave and testing the 157.60 level.

Following the latest decision by the US regulator, the market increased expectations of another rate hike in October to around 56%. This supports the interest-rate differential in favour of the dollar.

On 18 September, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, while two board members opposed the increase. Against this backdrop, Kazuo Ueda's cautious rhetoric reduced expectations of further tightening in the near term.

After the yen weakened, the BoJ conducted a so-called rate check, requesting current quotes from financial institutions. The market views this as a warning that the authorities are prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen weakens excessively.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously urged Japan to take decisive monetary-policy measures to address yen weakness. This increases pressure on Tokyo and limits the scope for further depreciation of the Japanese currency.

Today's USDJPY forecast takes into account that more hawkish Federal Reserve monetary-policy expectations and the BoJ's cautious stance preserve the dollar's interest-rate advantage. At the same time, the Japanese authorities' readiness to intervene and the possibility of further BoJ rate hikes could limit the yen's downside potential.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, USDJPY formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band and is trading around 157.60. As the pair remains within an ascending channel, it could continue the upward wave as the pattern signal plays out. The first upside target is 158.50.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also allows for another market scenario: the pair could form a corrective wave and move towards 156.85 before resuming the uptrend.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 157.80 and 158.50
• Key support levels: 156.85 and 155.08

USDJPY trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 157.80 resistance level would confirm the continuation of the uptrend and create conditions for opening long positions in USDJPY.

• Current price: 157.60
• Entry level: 157.80
• Take Profit: 158.50
• Stop Loss: 157.60
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 23 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish USDJPY scenario remains a further strengthening of the Bank of Japan's hawkish rhetoric and an increased likelihood of currency intervention. If the market begins to price in a faster rate-hike cycle in Japan, the yen could receive additional support.

Summary

The BoJ is pursuing tighter monetary policy, but this is not preventing USDJPY from rising. USDJPY technical analysis suggests further gains towards the 158.50 level.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.