USDJPY forecast 2025, 2026: expert predictions, price outlook, and analysis
Disclaimer: the information in this article is based on the analysis of reputable financial resources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research, but it should be taken into account that economic changes may significantly affect market conditions, which may lead to changes in forecasts. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making important financial decisions.
The USDJPY pair represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. It is one of the major currency pairs on the Forex market, widely used by investors and popular among traders. Its exchange rate depends on the economic indicators of the United States and Japan, the monetary policies of the central banks of both countries, and the impact of global geopolitical factors. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve System (Fed) play a key role in regulating the value of their currencies, adjusting monetary policy in response to factors such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth rates.
In this article, we will examine the forecast for the USDJPY pair for 2025 and 2026, highlighting the key factors that will determine the direction of the currency pair's movement. We will utilize technical analysis, consider the opinions of leading experts, major banks, and financial institutions, and review forecasts based on artificial intelligence models.
Table of contents:
- Key takeaways: USDJPY price prediction
- How to make a Japanese yen price forecast?
- USDJPY live price chart
- USDJPY weekly technical analysis
- Long-term USDJPY forecast for 2025
- Expert USDJPY forecast 2025-2026
- USDJPY forecast from AI 2025-2026
- Conclusion
- FAQ
Key takeaways: USDJPY price prediction
Before we get into a detailed analysis and forecast for EURUSD for 2025 and 2026, let's take a look at the crucial factors that have the biggest impact on this currency pair.
Long-term trend. The USDJPY pair has been trading in a long-term upward trend since the beginning of 2021. A key support level for this trend is 139.57. If the price drops below this mark, it will signal the end of the long-term uptrend.
Central Bank policies. In January, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%, marking the highest short-term borrowing cost in 16 years. The central bank also revised its inflation forecasts upwards, indicating the possibility of further rate hikes.Inflationary pressure. The U.S. Federal Reserve plans to pause its rate-cutting cycle, keeping the rate at its current level of 4.5%. Recently published minutes from the latest Fed meeting highlighted the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy decisions due to the risks of a potential increase in U.S. inflation growth rates.
Expert and AI forecasts. Forecasts for USDJPY show a divergence of opinions: some analysts expect the yen to strengthen, while others predict a stronger U.S. dollar. The projected USDJPY rate range varies approximately between 140.00 and 170.00.
Support and resistance levels
Support:
- Key support - 154.50
- Target in case of a key support breakout - 148.60
Resistance:
- Nearest resistance - 158.88
- Target in case of a resistance breakout - 162.00
How to make a Japanese yen price forecast?
When creating a forecast for the USDJPY pair, in addition to technical analysis, it is essential to account for key fundamental factors influencing the pair's quotes:
Monetary policy of Central Banks
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) play a crucial role in determining USDJPY dynamics. Decisions regarding interest rates and inflation targets can drastically shift trader sentiment, leading to currency pair fluctuations. A more aggressive Fed policy generally strengthens the U.S. dollar against the yen.
Economic growth
Economic performance indicators for both Japan and the U.S. are key to shaping USDJPY prices. Strong GDP growth in Japan may support the yen, whereas a slowdown in the U.S. economy could weaken the dollar. The difference in economic growth rates between the two countries will define USDJPY’s long-term prospects and influence the overall market trend.
Inflation levels
Inflation has a significant impact on central bank decisions and, therefore, on currency exchange rates. High inflation in the U.S., coupled with Fed rate hikes, encourages investors to favor the U.S. dollar over the low-yielding Japanese yen.
Political and geopolitical events
Political stability in the U.S. and Japan greatly affects USDJPY dynamics. For example, U.S. presidential elections have historically had a notable influence on the currency pair. Additionally, energy crises and regional conflicts contribute to heightened market volatility.
Yen as a safe haven currency during crises
Another key factor influencing USDJPY is the role of the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency during global crises. During an active phase of a crisis, stock markets tend to decline, and investors sell off risky assets to buy safe-haven currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Swiss franc, and yen. During such times, USDJPY may decline significantly due to yen strengthening.
Bank of Japan interventions
A unique characteristic of the USDJPY pair is periodic currency interventions. The Bank of Japan often takes action when the yen strengthens or weakens excessively. In such cases, the BoJ may intervene through large-scale purchases or sales of yen to stabilize the USDJPY exchange rate locally.
USDJPY live price chart
USDJPY weekly technical analysis
Let's review the weekly chart of the USDJPY currency pair using technical analysis to assess nearby support and resistance levels, identify chart patterns, and analyze technical indicators.
The USDJPY pair is currently trading in an upward trend on the weekly chart. This trend is confirmed by the Alligator indicator, which is positioned below the price chart and is trending upward. This week, the pair formed a local high at 158.00 before turning downward, indicating a local downward correction.
The development of this correction is further confirmed by the stochastic oscillator, which has generated a sell signal in the form of a bearish divergence. If key support levels hold during the correction, the pair may reverse upward, continuing its bullish trend. However, if the support levels fail, a global trend reversal downward is possible.
Key support levels:
- 154.50: the nearest support level, coinciding with the lower boundary of the ascending price channel. If this level holds, the upward trend could continue
- 148.60: a key support level, which may serve as a launching point for a price reversal upward. Breaking below this level would indicate the end of the upward trend and the start of a global bearish reversal
- 139.50: a long-term support level, which serves as a bearish target in the event of a confirmed downward trend after breaking below 148.60
Key resistance levels:
- 158.88: the local weekly high, breaking above this level would confirm the strength of the upward trend and open the way for bulls to target the 2024 high at 162.00
- 162.00: a key resistance level, breaking above this level would pave the way for the pair to reach new highs, with the next potential target being 170.00
Long-term USDJPY forecast for 2025
Bullish scenario:
Despite the current downward correction, the long-term trend for the pair remains upward. If there is a rebound from the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the support level at 154.50, the quotes may reverse upwards. Confirmation of the continuation of the upward trend will be a breakout of the resistance level at 158.88, which could be followed by growth toward the 2024 high of 162.00.
Bearish scenario:
If the support at 154.50 fails to stop the current downward correction, the risk of a trend reversal downward increases. The key confirmation of the start of a downward trend will be a breakout of the support level at 148.60, after which the bears will have a clear path to the 2024 low of 139.40.
Sideways scenario:
There is also a likelihood of the asset entering a prolonged sideways corridor, limited below by the support level at 148.60 and above by the resistance level at 158.88. This scenario is quite possible if the Fed and the Bank of Japan take a wait-and-see approach in 2025 and refrain from making decisive rate changes. In this case, the current status quo within the aforementioned corridor may persist throughout 2025.
Expert USDJPY forecast 2025-2026
J.P. Morgan
Analysts at the bank predict that excessive weakness of the yen is unacceptable for both U.S. and Japanese policymakers. If the devaluation of the yen accelerates, it will be countered by more hawkish interventions aimed at purchasing yen.
- Forecast for 2025: 151.00
- Forecast for 2026: 148.00
RBC
RBC Capital Markets experts note a trend of gradual decline in the USDJPY exchange rate, as well as risks of a potential rollback of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting policy and the possibility of Chinese yuan devaluation.
- Forecast for 2025: 153.00
- Forecast for 2026: 150.00
Citi Research
Citi Research specialists suggest that a tighter monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, combined with a reduction in the Federal Reserve rate, should lead to a gradual strengthening of the yen against the U.S. dollar.
- Forecast for 2025: 150.00
- Forecast for 2026: 130.00
ING
Analysts at ING anticipate a moderate decline in the pair in 2025, followed by strengthening in 2026.
- Forecast for 2025: 160.00
- Forecast for 2026: 150.00
Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo experts forecast that the contrast between the Bank of Japan's rate hikes and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could lead to a strengthening of the yen.
- Forecast for 2025: 144.00
- Forecast for 2026: 146.00
USDJPY forecast from AI 2025-2026
In addition to expert opinions, AI algorithms have been used to generate forecasts. These models rely on advanced prediction algorithms, historical data, and machine learning techniques to create more accurate projections based on past trends.
Wallet Investor
Wallet Investor expects the pair to rise over the next two years.
- USDJPY forecast for 2025: 171.00
- USDJPY forecast for 2026: 184.00
Coin Index
Coin Index also anticipates the continuation of the bullish trend.
- USDJPY forecast for 2025: 164.00
- USDJPY forecastfor 2026: 174.00
Long Forecast
Long Forecast believes that in 2025, the pair will remain near current levels.
- USDJPY forecast for 2025: 155.00
- USDJPY forecast for 2026: 173.00
Panda Forecast
Panda Forecast expects moderate growth in the pair.
- USDJPY forecast for 2025: 160.00
- USDJPY forecast for 2026: 167.00
Conclusion
The USDJPY currency pair is one of the most popular pairs for trading in the Forex market. Thanks to its liquidity, accessibility, and low spread, the pair remains favored among traders and investors.
In 2025, USDJPY may experience significant fluctuations, suggesting the possibility of both bullish and bearish scenarios. The main factors influencing the exchange rate will include the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, inflation expectations, and global economic risks.
The long-term forecast from experts (J.P. Morgan, RBC Capital Markets, Citi Research) for 2025–2026 suggests a moderate decline in the pair's quotes to the range of 150.00–148.00 yen per dollar. However, AI algorithms, on the contrary, predict further growth of the USDJPY exchange rate to levels of 160.00–170.00 over the next two years.
Technical analysis for 2025, under an optimistic scenario, suggests a rise in quotes to levels of 158.88–162.00 if the upward trend continues. A pessimistic scenario allows for a trend reversal downward with a decline to levels of 148.60 and 139.58. Additionally, a sideways trend within the range of 148.60–158.88 is possible, reflecting a balance between key fundamental factors.
FAQ
The current USDJPY price you can find in the USDJPY live price chart.
The USD/JPY forecast for 2025, based on expert opinions and AI algorithm calculations, suggests that the USD/JPY exchange rate will range between 150.00 and 171.00.
There is no definitive answer to this question. Experts lean toward a moderate strengthening of the yen, while AI algorithms predict further weakening of the Japanese currency. The determining factor will be the policies of the regulators—the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.