Daily technical analysis and forecast for 31 August 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 31 August 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 31 August 2026 and remains valid throughout the current trading day. It closes when the price reaches either the take-profit or stop-loss level, or at the end of the trading day if neither level has been reached. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for EURUSD remains mixed. The prospect of an ECB rate hike in September provides medium-term support for the euro, while persistent US PCE inflation and rising expectations of a Fed rate hike give the US dollar an advantage over the near term. A further factor putting pressure on the euro is the deterioration in global risk appetite following renewed conflict in the Middle East. Therefore, for the coming day, the fundamental backdrop is more supportive of an EURUSD correction despite the euro’s remaining medium-term potential.

On the H4 chart, after forming a high around 1.1710, EURUSD entered a downward corrective structure. The market declined steadily and has now formed a consolidation area around 1.1590–1.1600. Resistance at 1.1615 is currently the key level. As long as the price remains below this mark, the structure of the latest highs retains a bearish character.

The first downside target is 1.1551. This level corresponds to the lower part of the current structure and could trigger short-term profit-taking by sellers. A breakout below 1.1551 would open the way towards 1.1520, which is viewed as the next important target of the corrective wave.

At the same time, a return above 1.1615 could temporarily weaken selling pressure and lead to another test of 1.1679. Consolidation above 1.1679 would change the short-term structure and increase the probability of a return towards 1.1703.

Given the current price position and H4 structure, the main scenario for 31 August remains a continued downward correction, with an initial target at 1.1551 and further potential towards 1.1520.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1592
• Entry price: 1.1587
• Stop loss: 1.1620
• Take profit: 1.1520
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

USDJPY forecast

The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY remains mixed. On the one hand, the Fed’s more hawkish stance and higher US Treasury yields support the US dollar. On the other hand, accelerating Japanese inflation and rising expectations of a BoJ rate hike provide fundamental support for the yen. Therefore, further movement in the pair will be particularly sensitive to Treasury yields and changes in expectations regarding the BoJ’s September meeting.

On the H4 chart, after finding support in the 158.20 area, USDJPY formed a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The latest upward wave took the market into the 159.80–160.00 area. The chart structure remains bullish, although the price is gradually approaching the 160.37 resistance level.

The key short-term support is the 159.36–159.63 area. As long as the price remains above this zone, a continued rise remains likely. A breakout above 160.37 would open the way towards 161.16, which is the main upside target of the current structure.

If a correction develops, the first reference level will be 159.63. A breakout below it would increase selling pressure and suggest a decline towards 159.36 and then 158.20. However, as long as the structure of higher lows remains intact, any decline should be viewed as corrective.

The main scenario for the coming trading day remains an attempt to continue the rise, with an initial target at 160.37 and further potential towards 161.16. An entry is preferable after a small pullback.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 159.79
• Entry price: 159.84
• Stop loss: 159.30
• Take profit: 161.16
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

GBPUSD forecast

The fundamental picture for GBPUSD remains mixed. The BoE keeps its interest rate at 3.75%, although the July decision showed notable internal pressure in favour of tightening. The acceleration in UK inflation to 2.9% also limits the scope for rapid policy easing. Nevertheless, persistent energy risks are worsening the outlook for the UK economy, while the Fed’s hawkish backdrop supports the US dollar. In the short term, this gives the downward GBPUSD scenario an advantage.

On the H4 chart, after forming a high around 1.3672, GBPUSD entered a steady downward correction. The market broke below the 1.3555 support level and reached the 1.3525–1.3530 area. The latest move indicates an attempt to form a corrective rebound towards the broken support level.

The 1.3551–1.3555 area now acts as the main resistance. As long as the price remains below this zone, a move back towards 1.3555 should be viewed as a false return followed by a renewed decline. The first target is 1.3499, after which the way opens towards 1.3478.

A deeper development of the bearish scenario could take the market towards 1.3423. This level is already a significant support area within the broader structure and may become a zone for a new technical rebound.

Consolidation above 1.3555 would weaken selling pressure and suggest a move towards 1.3577. However, as long as the price remains below this area, sellers hold the upper hand.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3539
• Entry price: 1.3534
• Stop loss: 1.3560
• Take profit: 1.3478
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar retains fundamental support from the RBA’s relatively high interest rate. July inflation fell to 3.5%, but core inflation remained at 3.6%, while the RBA continues to highlight persistent inflation risks. The rise in oil prices following renewed tensions in the Middle East is also increasing global inflationary pressure and raising the likelihood of tighter policy from various central banks. However, in the short term, a stronger US dollar and weaker risk appetite are creating conditions for an AUDUSD correction.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD retains an upward structure after a prolonged move from the 0.6920 area. The latest upward wave took the market to 0.7207, after which a decline began. The price is currently around 0.7162 and forming a consolidation range above 0.7134.

The nearest resistance of the current structure is 0.7170, while the main upper boundary remains at 0.7204–0.7207. As long as the price holds below 0.7170, a continued correction remains highly likely.

A breakout below 0.7134 would open the way towards 0.7063–0.7065. This level is a crucial support point for the upward structure. Holding it could trigger a new upward momentum, while a sustained breakout below would signal a transition into a deeper corrective phase.

For the coming trading day, the main scenario remains a decline towards 0.7134. Selling is preferable after confirmation of weakness in the 0.7160–0.7170 area.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.7162
• Entry price: 0.7157
• Stop loss: 0.7170
• Take profit: 0.7134
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

USDCAD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for USDCAD is gradually shifting in favour of the Canadian dollar. The BoC keeps its interest rate at 2.25%, while July inflation reached 3.0%, although the market expects the rate to remain unchanged at the 2 September meeting. At the same time, the sharp rise in oil prices following a renewed escalation around Iran is supporting the CAD as a commodity currency. Therefore, despite the Fed’s more hawkish rhetoric, the short-term balance of factors suggests a decline in USDCAD.

On the H4 chart, after a prolonged downward move, USDCAD formed a low around 1.3730 and entered an upward correction. The latest upward wave reached 1.3907–1.3910, where the market encountered resistance.

The price is currently around 1.3890. The main resistance is 1.3907, while the stronger reversal area is 1.3935. As long as the price remains below 1.3907, the structure suggests a downward wave.

The first downside target is 1.3844. A breakout below this level would open the way towards 1.3777, where the next significant support of the current structure is located. A deeper decline could lead to another test of the 1.3696 mark.

An alternative scenario would be activated by sustained consolidation above 1.3935. In this case, the corrective structure would continue higher, with the prospect of a move towards 1.4127.

Given the market’s position below resistance and the strengthening of the CAD following the rise in oil prices, the main scenario for the day suggests a decline in USDCAD.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3891
• Entry price: 1.3886
• Stop loss: 1.3920
• Take profit: 1.3777
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

XAUUSD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for gold has become more complex. On the one hand, the renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict is increasing demand for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, the surge in oil prices is adding to inflation risks, while hawkish Fed rhetoric is pushing US Treasury yields higher. The rise in yields is currently exerting stronger short-term pressure on gold: on 31 August, gold fell by around 0.6% amid rising yields. Therefore, despite persistent strategic demand for safe-haven assets, the short-term balance of factors remains bearish.

On the H4 chart, after forming a high in the 4,695–4,700 area, XAUUSD entered a sharp downward wave. The market broke below the 4,458 area and is currently trading around 4,417. The structure of the latest candlesticks indicates continued selling pressure.

The nearest resistance level is located in the 4,458–4,460 area. As long as the price remains below this zone, the main direction remains downward. The next target is 4,330, where a significant support area of the current structure is located.

A breakout below 4,330 could open the way towards 4,284 and then 4,219. At the same time, reaching 4,277 within the nearest corrective wave appears to be the most realistic first target.

A return above 4,458 would be the first sign of stabilisation. Consolidation above 4,632 would significantly weaken the current downward structure and bring the 4,696 area back into focus.

Sellers remain in control for the coming trading day, although elevated geopolitical volatility means the possibility of sharp intraday rebounds must be taken into account.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 4,417
• Entry price: 4,412
• Stop loss: 4,458
• Take profit: 4,277
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

US 500 forecast

The fundamental backdrop for the US stock market has deteriorated compared to the previous week. Persistent PCE inflation and the Fed’s hawkish stance are increasing the cost of capital, while another rise in oil prices is adding to inflation risks. At the same time, the escalation in the Middle East has triggered declines in Asian equity indices and US futures. Therefore, at the start of the week, geopolitical risk, high yields, and expectations of tighter Fed policy combined are putting pressure on the US 500.

On the H4 chart, after rising towards 7,770, the US 500 formed a corrective structure. The market failed to consolidate above 7,719–7,778 and has now returned to the 7,684 area. The latest candlesticks indicate weakening buying pressure.

The nearest support is in the 7,665–7,674 area. A breakout below this zone would strengthen the downward momentum and suggest a move towards 7,601. The 7,601 level is the most significant target of the current corrective structure.

The resistance level is located around 7,719, followed by 7,778. A return above 7,719 could trigger a technical rebound towards 7,778. Consolidation above 7,778 would invalidate the short-term bearish scenario and open the way to new highs.

However, given the price position below resistance and the deterioration in global risk appetite, the main scenario remains a continued decline. The market could initially test the 7,665 mark before potentially extending the correction towards 7,601.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 7,684
• Entry price: 7,679
• Stop loss: 7,719
• Take profit: 7,601
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

BTCUSD forecast

BTCUSD enters the beginning of September after a strong rise in August, but the macroeconomic backdrop has become less favourable. Bitcoin remains sensitive to expectations regarding liquidity and Fed interest rates, while rising inflation risks and higher US Treasury yields limit the potential for the upward impulse to continue. At the same time, a new escalation in geopolitical tensions and weaker risk appetite are creating additional pressure on the cryptocurrency market. The roughly 24% rise in August increases the likelihood of profit-taking after the price reached the 81,000 area.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD hit 81,449 after a strong upward wave and formed a corrective structure. The subsequent consolidation took place within the 78,000–79,300 range, after which the market came under renewed selling pressure. The price is currently around 77,409.

The nearest resistance level is now 78,685, while the stronger resistance area remains at 79,297. As long as the price stays below these levels, the bearish scenario retains the advantage.

The first support area is 76,800. A breakout below it would strengthen the current correction and open the way towards 74,250. The next level in the structure is 71,960, while deeper medium-term support is located around 70,870.

If the price returns above 78,685, the market could recover towards 79,297. Consolidation above 79,297 would bring the 81,449 high back into focus and invalidate the short-term bearish scenario.

The main scenario for the coming day remains a continued downward correction, with an initial move towards 76,800 and further potential towards 74,250.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 77,409
• Entry price: 77,404
• Stop loss: 78,150
• Take profit: 74,250
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

EURUSD has recovered from the July lows and is trading near 1.1545 — back in bullish territory. The pair has reclaimed EMA65 on the daily, formed a bullish EMA crossover on H4, and the US-eurozone GDP gap has narrowed sharply (US 1.5% vs eurozone 1.0%). Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both now target 1.2500 by year-end. A confirmed close above 1.1700 opens the path to 1.1805. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios, and what the unprecedented 9-3 FOMC dissent vote means for EURUSD.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Gold has reversed its downtrend and is trading near 4,360 USD, back above both EMA65 and EMA200. ETF flows turned positive in July with 3 billion USD of net inflows, and central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in Q2 — up 62% year-on-year. A breakout above 4,500 USD opens the path to 4,855 USD and the 5,597 USD all-time high. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers, and what J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs are forecasting for gold in 2026.