Weekly technical analysis and forecast (13–17 July 2026)

In this weekly technical analysis, we examine the key chart patterns and price levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, Gold (XAUUSD), Brent crude oil, and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to forecast market developments for the week ahead (13–17 July 2026).

Major technical levels to watch this week

• EURUSD: Support: 1.1366, 1.1260. Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1669
• USDJPY: Support: 160.47, 159.57. Resistance: 162.97, 164.08
• GBPUSD: Support: 1.3226, 1.3128. Resistance: 1.3433, 1.3447
• AUDUSD: Support: 0.6855, 0.6774. Resistance: 0.6976, 0.7025
• USDCAD: Support: 1.4157, 1.3962. Resistance: 1.4247, 1.4373
• Gold: Support: 3,953, 3,905. Resistance: 4,143, 4,400
• Brent: Support: 75.65, 70.24. Resistance: 81.06, 86.81
• BTCUSD: Support: 61,227; 57,306. Resistance: 62,948; 68,112

EURUSD forecast

Expectations regarding the next decisions from the world’s two largest central banks will influence the EURUSD pair in the upcoming week. The Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes published this week showed that policymakers remain divided over the future path of interest rates. Meanwhile, most market participants continue to closely monitor inflation risks, which have intensified again amid rising energy prices and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In the eurozone, investors focused on the minutes of the European Central Bank’s June meeting. The regulator acknowledged that inflationary pressure remains persistent and that high energy prices could keep consumer price growth above the target level for an extended period. Despite this, the ECB maintains a cautious approach and intends to base its decisions solely on incoming macroeconomic data.

Therefore, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed. Expectations that the Fed will maintain a tight policy stance and rising US bond yields support the dollar, while persistent expectations of further ECB policy tightening provide limited support to the euro. As a result, the market may retain elevated volatility in the absence of a clear medium-term trend.

EURUSD technical analysis

The daily chart continues to form a downward structure within the fifth Elliott wave. After completing the fourth corrective wave, the market resumed its decline and currently trades near 1.1422, which acts as a local equilibrium point.

The price continues to move within a descending channel, while the channel’s upper boundary and the SMA50 moving average limit all recovery attempts. The SMA50 remains above current quotations and confirms the persistence of the medium-term bearish trend.

According to the chart structure, the 1.1260 area remains the primary target of the current fifth wave. A strong long-term support area coinciding with the lower boundary of the broad descending channel lies at this level. Sellers retain a technical advantage until the price reaches this zone.

The market will likely form a sideways consolidation range between 1.1366 and 1.1500 in the coming days. Such a pause appears logical after the prolonged decline and may prepare the market for another downward impulse. Only a firm consolidation above 1.1500 would indicate the development of a deeper correction towards 1.1669, where the previous local highs and the dynamic SMA50 resistance lie.

Trading volumes remain moderate, while the price structure does not yet show signs of a full reversal. As long as the price remains within the descending channel, selling on rallies remains the priority, with the market expected to complete the fifth wave.

EURUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): the market forms a consolidation range around 1.1422. As long as the price remains within the fifth wave’s descending channel, a downside breakout followed by a decline towards the primary target at 1.1260 remains highly probable.

Bullish (alternative): if buyers consolidate above 1.1500 and break through the upper boundary of the descending channel, the probability of a correction towards 1.1669 will increase.

USDJPY forecast

Several fundamental factors will influence the USDJPY pair in the upcoming week. Market participants continue to focus primarily on the monetary policy outlooks of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan , as well as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

The Fed meeting minutes published this week confirmed that the US regulator maintains a tight stance on inflation. Rising energy prices due to escalating tensions around the Persian Gulf increase inflation risks, supporting US Treasury yields and sustaining strong demand for the US dollar.

In contrast, the Japanese yen continues to face pressure. Despite the gradual normalisation of the Bank of Japan’s policy, the interest rate differential between the US and Japan remains substantial. Active investments by Japanese funds in overseas assets provide an additional factor weakening the yen by increasing demand for foreign currencies. At the same time, the market closely monitors potential verbal interventions from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, as the exchange rate has again approached levels that have historically prompted government intervention.

Therefore, the fundamental backdrop remains favourable for the dollar, although the probability of sharp corrections increases as the pair approaches multi-year highs.

USDJPY technical analysis

The daily chart maintains a firm uptrend. The price continues to form a sequence of upward impulses in line with the Elliott wave structure. After completing corrective wave 4, the market formed a powerful fifth upward wave, which nearly reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel.

The pair currently consolidates in the 162.30–162.70 area after its rapid rise. This price action indicates position accumulation ahead of another attempt to continue the upward movement rather than a reversal.

According to the chart, the nearest resistance lies at 162.97. A breakout above this level will open the way towards the next target at 164.08, where the upper boundary of the current impulse lies. If the strong fundamental backdrop persists, the market may also test the 164.34 area, which represents the next significant resistance.

The medium-term ascending channel remains in place, while the price holds firmly above the SMA50 line, confirming the persistence of the bullish market structure. The wave structure also indicates that the current impulse remains incomplete.

At the same time, traders should consider signs of local overbought conditions. After the prolonged rise, the probability of a technical correction is gradually increasing. The chart shows an alternative scenario involving an initial decline towards 160.47, the first important support within the ascending channel. If sellers consolidate below this level, the correction may extend towards 159.57 and then 156.49, where a stronger long-term support area lies.

For now, however, the structure of highs and lows remains upwards, while any corrective declines may provide opportunities for renewed buying activity.

USDJPY forecast scenarios

Bullish (base case): the market holds above 162.30. Consolidation above 162.97 will open the way towards 164.08, with a possible further rise towards 164.34.

Bearish (alternative): if the price consolidates below 160.47, the probability of a deeper correction towards 159.57 and subsequently the 156.49 area will increase.

GBPUSD forecast

A combination of external and domestic fundamental factors will determine GBPUSD dynamics in the upcoming week. Market participants will continue to focus on the monetary policy outlooks of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), as well as changes in global demand for safe-haven assets. The latest Fed meeting minutes confirmed that the regulator remains concerned about inflation risks, strengthening expectations that it will maintain a tight policy stance. Rising US government bond yields and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which increase demand for safe-haven currencies, also support the dollar.

The situation in the UK remains more balanced. At its June meeting, the Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.7500%, noting a decline in inflation while also highlighting persistent upside price risks caused by high energy costs. Next week, investors will closely monitor speeches by BoE officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, as any signals of further policy tightening could support the pound.

Therefore, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed: the resilience of the US economy supports the dollar, while expectations regarding the BoE’s future actions limit the downside potential of the British currency.

GBPUSD technical analysis

The daily GBPUSD chart maintains the downward structure formed after the completion of wave 4 under the Elliott wave structure. The price remains within a descending channel, confirming continued medium-term selling pressure.

The market has now completed a corrective recovery towards the pivot point area between 1.3433 and 1.3447. This zone coincides with the dynamic SMA50 resistance, significantly increasing the probability of a new downward wave.

The latest rise from the 1.3190 area remains corrective and does not yet show signs of a medium-term trend reversal. According to the wave structure, the fifth downward wave is beginning to form. The 1.3226 support represents the nearest target for sellers. A breakout below this level will open the way towards 1.3128, after which the 1.3004 area will become the primary target. This area coincides with the lower boundary of the long-term descending channel and the projected target of wave 5.

From a technical perspective, the price reaction to the 1.3433–1.3447 zone remains important. As long as quotations remain below this range, sellers retain the advantage. The price’s position relative to the SMA50, which continues to act as dynamic resistance, provides additional confirmation of the bearish scenario.

Only a firm consolidation above 1.3447 could disrupt the current downward structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction towards the upper boundary of the channel. However, this remains the alternative scenario at present.

GBPUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (primary): the correction is expected to end below 1.3433. If selling pressure persists, the price will likely decline towards 1.3226. After a short-term correction, the market may continue moving towards 1.3128, followed by the 1.3004 target.

Bullish scenario (alternative): if the price consolidates firmly above 1.3447 amid stronger demand, the recovery may continue towards the 1.3530 area.

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar ends the week under pressure from several fundamental factors. The divergence between the monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to exert the main influence on AUDUSD dynamics. Although the RBA kept its interest rate unchanged, its officials continue to maintain cautious rhetoric, highlighting persistent inflation risks and the need to assess incoming macroeconomic data.

In the US, the dollar receives support from the resilient labour market, persistent expectations of a tighter Fed policy stance, and rising US government bond yields. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide an additional source of demand for the dollar by increasing investor interest in safe-haven assets.

Revised forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, which indicate a slowdown in Australian economic growth in 2026, have also negatively affected the Australian currency. At the same time, declining global risk appetite traditionally puts pressure on commodity-linked currencies, including the Australian dollar.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The daily AUDUSD chart maintains a medium-term downward structure following the completion of an upward wave. The price continues to form a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the development of a bearish impulse.

According to the Elliott wave structure, the market completed the third downward wave after reaching the 0.6855 area and then entered a corrective phase. The price currently moves near the pivot point at approximately 0.6976. This level will become the main reference point for market participants next week.

From a technical perspective, the formation of a corrective fourth wave appears the most likely scenario. After completing a local recovery towards the 0.6976 resistance, the price may continue rising towards the next resistance at 0.7025. This zone coincides with previous consolidation levels and may create a strong obstacle for buyers.

Given the persistence of the broader bearish structure, traders should view any rise as corrective. After the fourth wave ends, the probability of a fifth downward wave remains high. The 0.6855 area, which already demonstrated its significance during the previous move, remains the first target for sellers. A firm breakout below this support could accelerate the downward impulse, followed by a move towards the strategic target at 0.6774.

The indicator picture also remains predominantly negative. The price trades below the key resistance areas, while the pivot point continues to limit recovery attempts. As long as quotations remain below 0.6976, sellers retain the medium-term advantage. Only consolidation above this level would indicate the development of a deeper correction.

Therefore, the current market structure remains downwards, while the anticipated recovery represents a technical correction within the continuing bearish trend.

AUDUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (base case): after forming a consolidation near 0.6921, the price is expected to rise correctively towards 0.6976. If resistance holds, the decline may resume towards 0.6855 and subsequently 0.6774.

Bullish scenario (alternative): if buyers consolidate above 0.6976 on rising volumes, the probability of continued corrective movement towards the 0.7025 area will increase.

USDCAD forecast

The USDCAD pair begins the new trading week after a firm strengthening of the US dollar, although the upward momentum is gradually slowing. Expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s future actions and the Bank of Canada meeting scheduled for next week remain the main market drivers. The latest Fed meeting minutes confirmed that the US regulator maintains a tight monetary policy approach and remains prepared to consider additional tightening if inflation stays persistently high. Elevated US Treasury yields and continued uncertainty surrounding inflation risks provide additional support to the dollar.

The outlook for the Canadian dollar remains mixed. On the one hand, high oil prices continue to support Canada’s export revenues. On the other hand, the latest Bank of Canada surveys showed deteriorating business expectations, rising corporate inflation expectations, and the continued impact of geopolitical tensions on energy and logistics costs. The Bank of Canada previously kept its interest rate unchanged and continues to closely assess the impact of global risks on the country’s economy. The Bank of Canada’s decision and updated comments may become the main event for USDCAD in the upcoming week.

USDCAD technical analysis

The daily chart maintains a stable uptrend. The price has consolidated firmly above the SMA50 moving average, which continues to act as dynamic support. After forming wave 2, the market developed a strong upward impulse, creating an extended wave 3 that almost reached the 1.4247 resistance area.

Quotations have now entered a consolidation phase below the 1.4247 resistance. This structure corresponds to the completion of the third Elliott wave and the formation of corrective wave 4. According to the chart structure, the 1.3962 area represents the most likely correction target, where important horizontal support lies and the corrective move is expected to end.

If the price remains above the 1.3962 zone, the medium-term bullish structure will remain fully in place. After the correction ends, the market may form wave 5, initially targeting 1.4373 and subsequently testing 1.4438. These levels represent the main reference points of the current upward model.

As long as the price holds above 1.3962, traders may view any declines as corrections within the prevailing uptrend. The price’s position well above the SMA50 provides additional confirmation of buyer strength, while the absence of reversal signals on the higher timeframe indicates that bulls retain the advantage.

Only a firm breakout below the 1.3962 support would change the current wave structure and significantly increase the probability of a deeper downward correction.

USDCAD forecast scenarios

Bullish (base case): after the correction towards 1.3962 ends, the price is expected to resume its rise towards 1.4373, with the prospect of continuing towards 1.4438.

Bearish (alternative): if the market consolidates below 1.3962, the probability of a continued decline towards the 1.3836 area will increase.

XAUUSD forecast

Gold ends the week amid elevated volatility as the market simultaneously assesses the US monetary policy outlook and rising geopolitical risks. The US Federal Reserve’s position remains the main factor. The published minutes of the latest meeting confirmed that the regulator continues to maintain a cautious approach due to persistent inflation risks. This supports US bond yields and limits the upside potential of gold as a non-yielding asset. At the same time, market participants continue to closely monitor the upcoming release of US inflation data, which could significantly alter expectations regarding the Fed’s future decisions.

Persistent tensions in the Middle East provide additional support to the precious metal. Rising geopolitical risks have again increased demand for safe-haven assets and allowed gold to recover from its recent decline. At the same time, rising oil prices intensify concerns about a new wave of inflation, creating a conflicting fundamental backdrop: demand for safe-haven instruments increases, while the probability of interest rates remaining high also rises.

Therefore, two opposing factors may shape the upcoming week: demand for safe-haven assets and expectations regarding the Fed’s future actions. Any new statements from the regulator’s representatives or further escalation of geopolitical tensions could cause a sharp increase in intraday volatility.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The daily chart maintains a pronounced downward structure. After forming the January high, the market has consistently developed a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the persistence of the medium-term bearish trend. The price continues to trade below the 50-day moving average, which remains dynamic resistance.

According to the wave structure, the local corrective phase is nearing completion after the price reached the 3,905–3,953 support area. This zone has halted the decline several times and forms the basis of the current consolidation. The chart shows that the 4,143 level, which acts as the first pivot point and nearest resistance, continues to limit recovery attempts.

If the market consolidates above 4,143, it will gain an opportunity to form a deeper correction towards the next important resistance at 4,400. This level contains a zone of previous reversal highs and marks the area where sellers previously regained full control of the market. Only a firm breakout above 4,400 will open the way for an upward wave towards 4,758, where the chart’s next strategic target lies.

If buyers fail to consolidate above 4,143, selling pressure may quickly resume. In this case, the market will retest the 3,953 support. A breakout below this level will confirm the continuation of the primary downward wave, again targeting 3,905. As long as the price remains below the SMA50, sellers retain the medium-term advantage, while traders should primarily view any recovery as a correction within the downtrend.

XAUUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): consolidation is expected to continue below 4,143, followed by a decline towards 3,953 and another test of the 3,905 support. After the downward wave ends, the market may form a larger correction.

Bullish (alternative): if the price consolidates above 4,143 amid rising volumes and a weakening US dollar, the recovery may continue towards 4,400. Consolidation above this level will open the way towards 4,758.

Brent forecast

Several fundamental factors will influence the Brent crude oil market in the upcoming week. The gradual decline in the geopolitical premium following improvements in the situation surrounding oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remains the main theme. Negotiations between the US and Iran reduced concerns about disruptions to crude exports, allowing market participants to refocus on the fundamental balance of supply and demand.

Expectations of another production increase by OPEC+ countries, which the alliance may approve at its upcoming meeting, exert additional pressure. The market is pricing in further supply growth, while the recovery in global demand remains relatively moderate. Weak fuel consumption dynamics in China and Europe continue to act as a particularly restraining factor.

At the same time, US labour market data, business activity figures, and statistics on US commercial crude oil inventories may support prices. If demand from refineries remains high, declining inventories may temporarily limit selling pressure. However, the overall fundamental backdrop remains predominantly negative at the start of the new week, as the market gradually shifts from assessing geopolitical risks to analysing the prospect of excess supply.

Brent technical analysis

The daily Brent chart shows a recovery correction developing after the price formed a local low near 70.24. Buyers managed to return the price above the 75.65 support, which now becomes the key pivot point for the upcoming week.

The downward Elliott impulse wave that began after the formation of the 114.08 high has ended. The market is now most likely forming an upward corrective wave. According to the chart structure, the 81.06 area, where the first significant resistance lies, represents the nearest target for buyers. If the upward impulse persists, the 86.81 level will become the next reference point.

The red SMA50 moving average continues to decline and remains significantly above current prices, indicating that the medium-term bearish trend persists. As long as the price remains below the SMA50, traders should view any recovery as a correction within the primary downward trend.

The chart also shows a sequence of higher lows forming after the rebound from 70.24, confirming a gradual increase in buying activity. However, the 81.06 area represents an important technical barrier where a strong selling zone previously formed. The market’s reaction near this resistance will determine the subsequent direction.

A firm consolidation above 81.06 will increase the probability of continued corrective growth towards 86.81 and subsequently the 91.89 area. If buyers fail to overcome this zone, sellers may regain the initiative and resume the decline towards the June lows.

Brent forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): after holding above 75.65, Brent continues its recovery towards 81.06. Following a possible short-term correction, the price is expected to rise again towards 86.81.

Bullish (alternative): if the price consolidates below 75.65 and sellers increase pressure, the probability of another decline towards 72.50, followed by a test of the 70.24 support, will increase.

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin ends the week near 63,000 USD, remaining under the influence of several fundamental factors. The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve remains the main theme for the market. The published minutes of the latest meeting confirmed that the regulator continues to maintain a cautious stance: some Fed officials consider future policy easing possible if inflationary pressure weakens, although the risks of accelerating price growth due to geopolitical factors and high energy prices remain. This limits demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The tense situation in the Middle East remains an additional source of uncertainty. Rising oil prices and increasing demand for safe-haven assets intensify volatility across financial markets. Despite this, institutional investors continue to gradually return to the cryptocurrency sector. After an extended period of outflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs again recorded net capital inflows, indicating persistent long-term interest from major market participants and supporting BTC during declines. However, purchasing volumes remain insufficient to form a stable uptrend, so the market continues to trade in consolidation mode.

BTCUSD technical analysis

The daily BTCUSD chart continues to form a corrective structure following the strong downward wave in early June. After reaching a local low near 57,300, the market formed a reversal pattern and has gradually recovered within a local ascending channel.

The price currently consolidates within the range between the 61,227 support and the 62,948 resistance. This area will determine the next direction of movement during the upcoming week.

According to the chart structure, the current formation more closely resembles the development of a corrective wave. The 68,112 level represents the nearest target for buyers. Reaching this level will confirm the completion of the local correction and support expectations of a continued recovery towards 70,837. This area coincides with the upper boundary of the nearest resistance zone and may become the first significant target of the current impulse.

At the same time, the chart shows that the 61,200–62,000 area remains the most important support zone. As long as the price holds above it, the probability of continued recovery remains high. The gradually rising lows indicate weakening selling pressure.

Nevertheless, the long-term downward structure has not yet been fully invalidated. If buyers fail to consolidate above 62,950 and selling volumes rise again, the market may retest the 61,227 zone before declining towards the key 57,306 support. This level remains the primary control point for the medium-term structure.

Therefore, the technical picture is gradually improving, although the market will confirm a trend reversal only after firmly consolidating above the 62,948 resistance and continuing towards 68,112.

BTCUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): the market continues to consolidate within the 61,227–62,948 range, followed by the development of an upward wave towards 68,112. If the external backdrop remains positive, the 70,837 area will become the next target.

Bullish (alternative): if selling pressure intensifies and the price consolidates below 61,227, the probability of another decline towards 57,306, with the medium-term downtrend remaining in place, will increase.

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