DE 40 forecast: the index continues to rise, with conditions for a new all-time high in place

The DE 40 stock index has formed a strong uptrend, which may enter a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s factory orders grew by 1.5% m/m
• Market impact: this data creates a mixed background for German equities

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Factory orders in Germany increased by 1.5% m/m, far exceeding expectations of 0.3%, although slowing from the previous 2.0%. For the market, this is a signal that the industrial sector remains active: companies continue to receive new orders, meaning future revenue and capacity utilisation. The result is significantly better than forecast, so it is a positive surprise for the stock market, despite a slight slowdown compared to the previous month.

For the DE 40 index, such data is a supportive factor. Strong orders typically push index futures higher and create a favourable backdrop for growth on the day of the release, especially if external news from the US or China does not interfere. Within the index, movement will likely be uneven: the strongest contribution to growth may come from major industrial and export-oriented companies – the core of the German economy.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index broke above the key resistance level at 23,890.0, with a new support level formed at 23,440.0. The prevailing trend is upward, and its duration remains uncertain. The next upside target is 24,460.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,440.0 support level could send the index to 22,955.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 23,890.0, the index could climb to 24,460.0

Summary

Importantly, this does not signal a powerful new growth cycle, but rather confirms the stability of current conditions. Therefore, the effect on the DE 40 can be described as moderately positive, likely supporting the index and limiting the depth of a potential correction, but not sufficient to guarantee a sustained rally without support from other data and the global backdrop. The nearest upside target for the index may be 24,460.0.

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