DE 40 forecast: the index continues to reach new all-time highs

The DE 40 stock index continues to rise and may hit a new all-time high again, while the probability of a correction is also increasing. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s industrial production increased by 0.8% in December
• Market impact: the data creates a positive backdrop for the German equity market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s industrial production indicator came out at 0.8% month-on-month, significantly better than expectations of a 0.6% decline. For the equity market, this represents a clear growth surprise, which reduces the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in the coming months and improves short-term expectations for revenue and margins among cycle-sensitive companies. Such a release typically supports risk appetite and increases investors’ willingness to buy industrial and export-oriented stocks.

For the DE 40 index, the effect is most often moderately positive. Typical beneficiaries include industrial companies, car manufacturers, chemical producers, and parts of the financial sector, as expectations improve for physical output volumes, capacity utilisation, and consequently profits in cyclical segments. At the same time, the interest rate and currency channels become more relevant: stronger data may push German bond yields upwards and reduce expectations of imminent ECB policy easing.

DE 40 technical analysis

For the DE 40 index, the key resistance level around 24,685.0 has been broken, with a new one yet to form. The support level is located near 24,460.0. A strong uptrend currently dominates the market, and prices continue to reach new all-time highs. The nearest upside target stands at 26,685.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 24,460.0 support level could send the index to 23,905.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 24,685.0, the index could climb to 26,685.0

Summary

The industrial production release of +0.8% m/m versus expectations of a decline acts as a moderately positive factor for German equities and typically supports the DE 40. However, the effect will most likely remain constrained by rising bond yields and a potential strengthening of the euro. As a result, the most realistic scenario is a moderate index increase with outperformance from cyclical sectors rather than a broad and sustained rally momentum. The nearest upside target remains 26,685.0.

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