DE 40 forecast: the index has broken out of the sideways channel

The DE 40 stock index has resumed growth and is testing a resistance level. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q4 2025
• Market impact: the data creates a positive backdrop for the German equity market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The publication of Germany’s GDP data at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, in line with the forecast of 0.3% and up from the previous reading of 0.0%, is generally perceived as a moderately positive signal. Since the figure matched expectations, the short-term reaction of the DE 40 index is typically restrained: the market had already partially priced in this outcome. Nevertheless, the improvement compared to the previous period reduces the risks of a prolonged stagnation scenario and supports equity valuations through lower macroeconomic uncertainty and more stable corporate earnings expectations.

A significant share of the DE 40 index’s companies are oriented towards external demand, so the impact of national GDP on quotes is often indirect and competes in importance with global factors such as the state of global manufacturing, demand in the US and China, energy prices, and currency dynamics. Interest rate expectations also play an additional role: stronger growth data may slightly reduce the likelihood of aggressive monetary easing in the eurozone, which could support bond yields and the euro.

DE 40 technical analysis

For the DE 40 index, the crucial resistance level is forming near 25,325.0, while the key support level is located around 24,775.0. Quotes are testing this level and are poised to break through it. If the recovery continues, the nearest upside target could be 25,940.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 25,325.0 support level could send the index down to 23,905.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 25,325.0 resistance level could boost the index up to 25,940.0

Summary

The data is moderately favorable in the medium term, as it confirms the transition from zero growth to positive momentum and reduces macroeconomic risks. However, the short-term effect is likely to be limited due to the alignment with expectations, and the index’s further direction will largely depend on external demand, euro dynamics, and the overall trajectory of interest rates in the eurozone. The nearest upside target remains 25,940.0.

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