DE 40 forecast: the index has fallen more than 10% from its peak

The DE 40 stock index failed to recover and entered a downtrend. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s CPI rose 0.2% in February
• Market impact: the data creates a neutral backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Based on the released statistics, the impact of this news on the DE 40 index will most likely be restrained and closer to neutral-to-positive. Germany’s monthly CPI increased by 0.2%, exactly in line with the forecast, while annual inflation in February came in at 1.9%, and the harmonised EU benchmark was 2.0%. In other words, the market did not get an inflation surprise. This is important for the stock market, as actual figures that match expectations typically do not provide a strong enough catalyst to trigger a broad rally or a sell-off in the index.

For the DE 40, the key is not only the 0.2% monthly figure itself, but how it is interpreted in the context of monetary policy. On the one hand, inflation remains close to a level that generally appears to be under control. On the other hand, the market has been assessing the situation in recent days against the backdrop of rising energy risks and more hawkish rate expectations in the eurozone.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index is forming a resistance level near 24,120.0, while the 23,585.0 support level has been broken, and a new one has yet to form. If the decline continues, the next downside target could be 22,435.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: if the price consolidates below the breached support level at 23,585.0, the index could fall to 22,435.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,120.0 resistance level could propel the index up to 25,370.0

Summary

For the German equity market, this is a moderately constructive signal, as inflation remains under control and in line with expectations. However, in the current environment, the impact of this data will be limited by external factors such as energy price movements, ECB rate expectations, and weakness in parts of Germany’s industrial sector. Therefore, the most likely market reaction is restrained and selective, with more resilient domestic sectors likely to perform better, while the export- and industry-heavy sector remains more sensitive to external risks. The nearest downside target remains 22,435.0.

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