DE 40 forecast: the index is correcting amid a pause in negotiations between the US and Iran

An uptrend in the DE 40 stock index formed after a strong impulse move and a breakout above resistance. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany Industrial Production MoM fell by 0.3% in March
• Market impact: the data creates a negative backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s industrial production data creates a negative backdrop for the DE 40 index. The actual monthly change came in at -0.3% month-on-month, while the market expected growth of 0.6%, and on the more stable three-month comparison, output for December–February was 0.4% below the previous three months. This matters for DE 40 because the index reflects the 40 largest listed German companies and is viewed as a key barometer of Germany’s stock market and the country’s economy.

A negative reaction is the most likely scenario for the DE 40. First, the market may pressure shares of industrial companies, the chemicals sector, and automakers, because these areas are most sensitive to the production cycle and business activity. The signal is also unfavorable for the technology sector, as the official statistics directly point to a noticeable drop in output of computer products.

DE 40 technical analysis

In the DE 40 index, resistance formed around 24,255.0, while support was established at 22,110.0. Quotes are correcting and may resume growth in the short term. If the rise continues, the target could be 24,935.0.

For the DE 40 price forecast, the following scenarios can be outlined:

• Bearish scenario for DE 40: if price breaks below the 22,110.0 support level, quotes may fall to 21,145.0
• Bullish scenario for DE 40: if price breaks above the 24,255.0 resistance level, quotes may rise to 24,935.0

Summary

For the DE 40, the news is more negative than neutral, but its impact still looks local rather than systemic. It worsens perceptions of the state of Germany’s industrial sector and will be especially sensitive for cyclical industries. However, export growth, improving orders, and positive developments in the auto industry reduce the likelihood that this single report will radically change the medium-term view of the German equity market. The nearest upside target remains 24,935.0.

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