DE 40 forecast: the index has recovered all losses driven by the US-Iran conflict

The uptrend in the DE 40 stock index continues and may lead to a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s CPI for March increased by 2.7% year-on-year
• Market impact: the data creates a negative backdrop for the German equity market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The increase in Germany’s annual inflation to 2.7%, in line with forecasts but significantly higher than the previous reading of 1.9%, may have a moderately negative impact on the DE 40 index. The fact that the figure matched expectations reduces the risk of a sharp market reaction, as market participants may have already partially priced in this outcome. However, the strong acceleration in inflation compared to the previous period raises concerns that the decline in price pressures in Germany may be less sustainable than previously expected.

For the DE 40 index, this creates a mixed but rather cautious backdrop. On the one hand, the fact that the forecast has not been exceeded could support the market and limit pressure on equities. On the other hand, the 2.7% reading remains above the comfort level for the European Central Bank, which may reduce expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy in the coming months. If investors begin to price in a longer period of elevated interest rates, this may put pressure on company valuations, particularly those whose pricing strongly depends on future cash flows and access to financing.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index broke above the 24,255.0 resistance level, with the support level shifting to 23,700.0. Quotes are rising confidently and retain the potential to reach a new all-time high. Nevertheless, a short-term correction cannot be ruled out. If the upward movement continues, the target could be 25,370.0.

For the DE 40 price forecast, the following scenarios can be outlined:

• Bearish scenario for DE 40: if the price breaks below the 23,700.0 support level, the index may fall to 22,655.0
• Bullish scenario for DE 40: if the price consolidates above the breached resistance level at 24,255.0, the index may rise to 25,370.0

Summary

The current data for the DE 40 is not sharply negative, as inflation matched expectations. However, the acceleration from 1.9% to 2.7% increases caution and may limit growth in the German equity market. For investors, the key issue is not only the current inflation level but also the likelihood that the ECB will need to maintain tight financial conditions for longer. The nearest upside target remains at 25,370.0.

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